Like the almost summer weather for the end of October, the French economy, however handicapped by prices which continue to soar, refuses to enter winter. According to data published on Friday, October 28, by INSEE, activity in the third quarter marked time, with gross domestic product (GDP) up 0.2%, after 0.5% in the previous quarter. , but it remains positive. For 2022, the growth overhang therefore stood at 2.5% at the end of September, a figure slightly down on the executive’s forecasts of 2.7%.
Inflation, on the other hand, is much more buoyant. The rise in consumer prices reached 6.2% in France, in October, over one year, against 5.6% in September 2022 – and 2.6% a year earlier. Food prices topped the index, rising 11.8%. Fresh produce even surged, to 16.9% at the end of October, against 11.3% a month earlier. Energy prices, which experienced a slight decline in September, rebounded and posted a rise of 19.2% at the end of October.
“We are facing an economy that is resisting, but slowing down”, underlines Nicolas Carnot, director of studies and economic syntheses at INSEE. For the last three months of the year, it will take “a mediocre international climate, the problem of energy supply, partners, in particular Germany, in difficulty, and the impact of the tightening of monetary policies ». As a result, INSEE maintains, at this stage, its forecast of zero growth in the fourth quarter.
Contrasting summer for household consumption
Household consumption, one of the main drivers of the French economy, had a mixed summer: flat overall in the third quarter, it showed a slight jump of 1.2% in September, driven by purchases of energy and, more surprisingly, manufactured goods. Over the whole of the summer period, it was on food shopping that the French restrained themselves, with consumption down by 1.6%, undoubtedly in connection with the rise in prices.
Purchasing power, put to the test in the first half of the year, nevertheless received a welcome boost, with the increases in the minimum wage, social benefits and pensions that came into effect at the start of the summer. “All of this increased purchasing power by 1.7% in the third quarter. Without, however, compensating for the loss recorded at the beginning of the year “, explains Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas. Moreover, the French remain cautious: the savings rate has started to rise again.
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