At the heart of an increasingly turbulent euro zone, France is consolidating its position as a good student on the inflation front. The consumer price index recorded a slight decline in September, for the second month in a row. Over one year, it stood at 5.6% after 5.9% in August and 6.1% in July, according to provisional data published on Friday September 30 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee ). The harmonized index, which allows European comparisons, stood at 6.2% in September, after 6.6% in August, the lowest level in the euro zone.
This decline is explained by the slowdown in energy prices (oil, which reached 120 dollars a barrel in the spring, fell back to less than 90 dollars in September) and by the effect of the price shield implemented in France. At a budgetary cost of 24 billion euros, this system makes it possible to reduce inflation by around two points, according to INSEE estimates.
Food, the locomotive of the rise
“We cannot speak of a reversal of the trend, but rather of a temporary reflux”tempers Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). “The peak of inflation has not, a priori, passed, it is rather expected for the beginning of 2023 with a price increase of more than 6% which will gradually decrease to around 4% at the end of the year. »
The price of fresh produce jumped spectacularly, going from a rate of increase of 3.5% in August to 11% in September
The Banque de France, in a note also published on Friday, notes that this phenomenon is now “more internal” and “wider” that a few months ago. In other words, imported inflation linked to energy prices is now spreading to all sectors of the economy.
Starting with food, which has become the locomotive of the rise in France. “The increase has reached almost 10% over one year. It is the first item of consumption to contribute to inflation”, notes Julien Pouget, head of the business cycle department at INSEE. The prices of fresh produce jumped spectacularly, going from a rate of increase of 3.5% in August to 11% in September.
For its part, the Asterès firm does not exclude, for the coming months, renewed tension in energy prices and underlines the increase “prices of production in industry” which show an increase of 25% on average over one year. And that’s without taking into account the gradual exit from the tariff shield, which will lead to a 15% increase in the price of gas and electricity for consumers at the start of 2023.