This is a misleading figure, published on Monday January 8 by the German national statistics institute, Destatis. In November 2023, German exports increased by 3.7% compared to October 2023, imports by 1.9%. This apparent improvement should not mislead: over one year, exports fell by 5%, imports by 12%.
And, according to experts, it is essentially a price effect that explains these variations. In fact, German foreign trade, crucial for the country’s economy, so dependent on its sales of manufactured goods on international markets, is in lasting lethargy.
“Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, German foreign trade has only grown because prices are increasing. If we correct the inflation data, exports and imports have more or less stood still for years”, analyzes Vincent Stamer, economist at the Kiel Institute, who calculates a monthly indicator of international trade, based on the quantities of containers shipped. He thinks “that no increase in German foreign trade is to be expected in the short term, due to the international situation and high interest rates”.
Negative spiral
Another figure confirms the gloomy atmosphere that dominates within “made in Germany”. In November 2023, industry, construction and energy taken together reduced their production by 0.7%, reports Destatis, Tuesday January 9. This is the sixth decline in a row. Such a negative spiral had only been observed once in Germany, at the time of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, observes DekaBank.
“This new decline in industrial production shows that companies are increasingly reacting to emptying order books. This is the price paid by rising interest rates around the world in response to high inflation., analyzes Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. According to data published on Monday, industrial order intake is at its lowest level since the Covid-19 crisis, underlines DekaBank.
And businesses are not very optimistic. The barometer of export expectations, calculated each month by the Ifo Institute, and published Tuesday January 9, shows a decline in December 2023. “Companies see few positive prospects for the start of the year”, explains Klaus Wohlrabe of Ifo. A majority of industrial branches expect exports to decline in the coming months. “This includes automakers, who until recently expected stability. This also applies to machine builders. »
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