The electoral campaign ends, two days before the presidential election of June 28, organized urgently after the death of Ebrahim Raissi in a helicopter accident in May. But unlike previous elections in 2021 and 2024, which were largely ignored by Iranians, this one could attract more voters. According to the latest poll dated June 24 from IPSA, an institute close to the government, more than 52% of voters could go to the polls.
The renewed interest in this election is partly explained by the presence of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, the only one among the five other candidates validated by the Council of Guardians of the Constitution. Asked by The world, experts and voters reached by telephone note that his candidacy raises hope for better conduct of national affairs, and even a slight economic improvement, in the face of galloping inflation of 53%, attributed to mismanagement and international sanctions . In recent years, the reform camp has been marginalized and pushed aside by the regime.
Among the five conservative candidates in the running, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, former mayor of Tehran, and Saïd Jalili, former negotiator on the nuclear issue with the West, are leading the polls alongside Masoud Pezeshkian. At this stage, however, no one seems able to win an absolute majority in the first round. Some experts and political activists speculate on the possibility that Said Jalili, known for his rigid and ideological positions, will step down in favor of Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a technocrat supported by the Revolutionary Guards, the country’s ideological army.
Regardless of the conservative candidate chosen, their electoral base, historically closer to the Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, than to the reformers, remains constant. But higher voter turnout has often benefited the reform camp in Iran. However, the challenge remains great for the latter, because few Iranians think that the system is reformable, and the wounds of the violent repression of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protest movement, born after the death in detention of the young Mahsa (Jina) Amini in September 2022, remain alive.
“Collective despair”
In Tehran, Pouya (first name has been changed for security reasons) discusses with his abstaining friends the need to vote, even though he had boycotted the 2021 and 2024 elections. Aged 35, working engineer in a factory, he took part in demonstrations of the “Woman, Life, Liberty” movement and continues to express his dissatisfaction with the regime on social networks. “I am going to vote for Pezeshkian because I am tired of this collective despair that has been suffocating us since the death of Mahsa Amini, he explains. At this stage, the overthrow of this regime is impossible, partly due to the absence of a structured and effective opposition. Furthermore, the boycott of the elections had no effect. »
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