Breaking the political deadlock after a year marred by violence and tension: this is the objective of the Iraqi Parliament which is meeting on Thursday 13 October to try to elect a new President of the Republic, and thus pave the way to the formation of a government.
The most total uncertainty still hangs over this parliamentary session scheduled for 11 a.m. local time (10 a.m. in Paris) in the green zone, this district of Baghdad cordoned off by the security forces and housing embassies and government institutions. Since the legislative elections of October 10, 2021, the barons of politics have still not managed to agree on the name of a new president, nor to appoint a prime minister. In a multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, polarization has only deepened.
Between the lines, the power struggles between the two major Shiite poles dominating the power show through: on the one hand the pro-Iran factions of the Coordination Framework, on the other the unpredictable and tempestuous religious leader Moqtada Al-Sadr.
Three failed election attempts
The presidency of the Republic, a highly honorary function traditionally reserved for a Kurd, crystallizes the tensions between the two major historical parties of the large Kurdish minority. The post usually goes to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), while the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (KDP) retains control over the affairs of autonomous Kurdistan. But now the PDK demands the presidency in Baghdad.
On three occasions this year, Parliament has tried unsuccessfully to organize the election of the president, failing to reach the two-thirds quorum required for the vote (220 deputies out of 329).
Among the thirty candidates, three profiles stand out. Incumbent President Barham Saleh, official PUK candidate, former minister Abdel Latif Rachid – a former PUK who ran on his own – and Rebar Ahmed, the region’s interior minister of Kurdistan and KDP candidate.
Once elected, the president will be able to appoint a prime minister – chosen by the largest coalition in parliament – who will then begin arduous negotiations to form a government.
“It is not yet clear if the Kurdish parties have reached an agreement on a president”, underlines Hamzeh Hadad, guest researcher at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR). For the post of Prime Minister, “the favorite is Mohamed Chia Al-Soudani”says the political scientist, referring to the 52-year-old former minister and former provincial governor, chosen by the Coordination Framework. “But in Iraqi politics, everything can change until the last minute. »
The troublemaker Moqtada Al-Sadr
In Iraq, since the American invasion which overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, the majority Shiite community has dominated power, and its parties have set the tone for political life. This summer, the candidacy of Mohamed Chia Al-Soudani had set fire to the powder and caused tensions between the Coordinating Framework and the Sadrist current – supporters of Al-Sadr going so far as to occupy the surroundings of Parliament for a month.
But the Coordination Framework, which notably includes the ex-paramilitaries of Hachd Al-Chaabi and the former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, – historical rival of Mr. Al-Sadr –, has never backtracked. At all costs, this coalition wants to form a government. It represents today the first force within the Parliament, after the unexpected withdrawal of the 73 deputies of the Sadrist movement.
Accustomed to blows, the troublemaker of politics Moqtada Al-Sadr demands, him, a dissolution of Parliament and early legislative elections, before any ballot. It remains to be seen what his reaction could be now. He has demonstrated in recent weeks his ability to destabilize the political spectrum by mobilizing tens of thousands of demonstrators in the streets.
The showdown came to a head on August 29, when more than 30 Sadrist supporters were killed in clashes with the army and Hachd Al-Shaabi forces, integrated with regular troops.