In Mauritania, President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani is the clear favourite for re-election

“His goal is to be re-elected without challenge from his opponents and with as little noise as possible,” summarizes a close friend of Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, the outgoing head of state and current president of the African Union (AU). The presidential election in Mauritania, the first round of which is scheduled for Saturday, June 29, is indeed expected to be without any major surprises. The candidate of the Equity Party, elected in 2019, is widely considered the favorite against his six competitors. About 1.9 million voters are called upon to decide between them. A possible second round is planned for July 14. “He leaves calmly and aims for 60% from the first round”, continues the same source.

The stakes of this presidential election are in fact elsewhere. In a country haunted by four coups d’état since its independence – the last one dates back to 2008 – the presidential election appears as a test of the solidity of the democratic process.

The president’s most serious challenger is the deputy ” anti-system “ Biram Ould Abeid. At the head of an anti-slavery NGO, imprisoned several times for, in particular, “membership of an unrecognized organization” and “threats” against a journalist, he came second in 2019 with 19% of the vote. He promises to put an end to the “discrimination that affects black Mauritanians, corruption, mismanagement” of the Ghazouani presidency. But his chances of victory are low as the opposition leaves in scattered order.

“A masterstroke”

Some of its members ended up joining the power camp and the Islamist Tawassoul party represented by Hamadi Ould Sidi El-Mokhtar, second force in Parliament with 11 deputies (out of 176), does not present a threat to the re-election of the outgoing president. “It’s a masterstroke, welcomes one of his allies. He knew how to listen and dialogue with his rivals, unlike former President Aziz, by rallying them to his side. Today we have a relatively peaceful political scene, which is quite unprecedented in our history.”

A man of dialogue, Mr. Ghazouani, 68, nonetheless remains an implacable leader. This is evidenced by the sentencing in December 2023 to five years in prison of his predecessor and mentor, former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz for “illicit enrichment”. “He did not move a finger to prevent the prosecution of the man who agreed to cede power by resigning in 2019. It is also a mark of good governance to let justice do its work,” estimates one of his relatives.

For this country, a rare pole of stability in a West Africa marked by jihadist attacks and praetorian coups, the Ghazouani era also marks the continuity of a security policy which has proven itself. No terrorist attacks have been committed since 2011.

“Mr Ghazouani is part of the pursuit of a strategy which focuses on territorial surveillance and effective intelligence. But also on a deradicalization policy based on inclusive dialogue, including with former terrorists from Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), notes Bakary Sambe, director of the Timbuktu Institute. Mauritanian ulemas who enjoy great authority have worked to discredit, with some success, extremist discourse. Raising awareness among young people about repentants has also had an effect. »

Multiplication of departures

If the maintenance of security is to the credit of this former chief of staff and head of military intelligence, he is running for the election with a mixed record. A social policy has been carried out for the most needy with the expansion of medical coverage to 800,000 people, the doubling of pensions, the construction of 350 schools, but the increase in departures attests to a malaise.

Since 2022, at least 22,000 young Mauritanians took the road to Nicaragua to reach the United States, according to Washington. The country also serves as a transit zone for candidates for emigration to Europe. In 2023, “ 80% of the boats arriving in the Canaries left from this Sahelian state or passed through its waters », reports researcher Hassane Koné from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). An agreement signed in March with the European Union should now encourage Nouakchott to prevent these departures, in return for a payment of 210 million euros.

“ It is a real bloodletting that we are undergoing, says Bah Moussa Bathily, teacher-researcher and member of the Mauritania Perspectives think tank. We are losing civil servants and teachers who are essential to the development of the country. However, education is a social emergency. We still have between 100 and 150 students per class. »

To meet the enormous educational challenge, President Ghazouani made primary school education compulsory and free. This is a way of correcting the serious social inequalities that keep the Haratine community, some of whose members come from slavery, at the bottom of the ladder.