“In Moscow, the tone is triumphalist. However, the war will amplify the structural handicaps of the Russian economy”

OWe would like the Marquis Astolphe de Custine (1790-1857) to return to the country of Vladimir Putin and deliver to usRussia in 2023”, as he described Russia in 1839. Nearly two centuries later, he would still have experienced “the desire to look behind the scenes” And “the temptation to lift a corner of the backdrop”, like when he was shown a country in the most flattering light, where only poverty, corruption and police terror reigned. Left Paris full of illusions about the absolute monarchy of the inflexible Nicholas Ierhe came back sobered with this advice: “It is a useful journey for any foreigner; anyone who has seen this country well will find themselves happy to live anywhere else. »

Twenty months after launching a “special military operation” against Ukraine which ended up absorbing all the country’s resources and strength, Mr. Putin is also trying to show Russia in its best economic guise. It has done so well to adapt to its relative isolation that the economy is showing astonishing resilience, despite eleven “packages” of European sanctions (soon to be twelve with diamonds) and retaliatory measures from the G7.

The master of the Kremlin, two-faced Janus, takes the posture of a statesman showing concern to maintain his country in world trade. He is expected to be present at the virtual G20 summit on Wednesday, November 22, in New Delhi. “The recession is over”, he said in June in “Direct Line”, the annual program of controlled exchanges with the Russians. Ten days later, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, he promised a “supply-side economy”a “increased productivity”of the “high salaries” and a technological surge. Sworn, he said, he will not return to privatizations or foreign investments if they do not come from “unfriendly countries”.

A snub for Europe and the United States

In September, Mr. Putin received unexpected support from Oleg Deripaska, one of the rare oligarchs to denounce the“colossal error” of the aggression against Ukraine, a prelude to the bankruptcy of the attacker. In an interview at Financial Times, the founder of the aluminum giant Rusal – profiteer from the war effort – judges that“despite military spending and numerous subsidies, the economic slowdown is very limited”. He even says “surprised by the flexibility of the private sector” in the face of sanctions, “an instrument from the 19th centurye ineffective century in the 21ste century “.

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