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In his speech on the state of the nation, Thursday, December 16, the Mozambican President, Filipe Nyusi, wanted to be reassuring: “This year, the province of Cabo Delgado has only experienced 52 attacks, against 160 in 2020.” Five months after the deployment of troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda to help Maputo counter the Islamist insurgents who have plagued northern Mozambique since 2017, the jihadists have been dislodged from the main cities they they occupied. The port city of Mocimboa da Praia was taken over in August, after more than a year under the control of what the population calls the “Chabab”. But the insurgency is not defeated: every week, attacks occur and experts worry about the opening of a new front in the neighboring province of Niassa.
The organization Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled) has documented 37 violent incidents causing around 100 casualties in November alone in Cabo Delgado, mainly in Macomia district, where SADC forces are currently stationed. Aid organizations describe an extremely volatile situation across the region: of the approximately 800,000 displaced by this crisis, only small groups have started to return home. “The terrorists have been cut off from their main supply channels. The pressure has therefore dropped a notch. But now, groups that are difficult to quantify have dispersed in the west and south of Cabo Delgado ”, explains a diplomatic source on the spot.
Although attacks are still frequent, their scale has diminished since the arrival of foreign troops. We are a long way from the capture of the city of Palma in March 2021, which lasted several days, claimed dozens of victims and shone the spotlight around the world on the insurgency of the Islamists of Cabo Delgado, affiliated with the Islamic State. (EI). In the process, the French giant TotalEnergies had invoked a case of “Force majeure” to stop its multi-billion dollar gas megaproject, located about ten kilometers from the city.
Today, life is gradually resuming in Palma, where Rwandan forces patrol regularly. The surroundings of the Mozambique LNG gas project are also secured by the men from Kigali. But to date, no employee has returned to the premises. And if TotalEnergies recently reopened a small office in Pemba, 400 km south of the future extraction site, the group has not yet announced an official date for the resumption of activities.
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