In Mozambique, the crisis in Cabo Delgado, a major issue in the presidential election

In a camp for displaced people who had to flee the Cabo Delgado province due to jihadist attacks, in Namapa, in Nampula province, Mozambique, February 27, 2024.

When embarking on the campaign for the presidential election, the polls of which are scheduled for Wednesday, October 9, the candidate of the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), Daniel Chapo, did not avoid the subject. “ There can be no development without peace. Cabo Delgado is also Mozambique and deserves our attention », admitted, at the end of August, the representative of the ruling party and probable successor to the current president Filipe Nyusi, who cannot claim a third term.

The subject has only gained momentum over the weeks and the possibility of dialogue with the forces destabilizing the northern province was raised by the poll favorite. Cabo Delgado, bordering Tanzania, has been the seat since 2017 of a jihadist insurgency led by the Ansar Al-Sunna group, affiliated with the Islamic State.

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Restoring the security situation is not only a local issue for the approximately 670,000 people still displaced by attacks and clashes with the armed forces. It is also the condition for the resumption of the gigantic gas exploitation project led by TotalEnergies – with an investment of more than 20 billion dollars (18.2 billion euros), the largest on the continent – ​​supposed to propel this poor country of 33 million inhabitants among the world’s leading producers. The French major suspended its operations citing a force majeure situation in April 2021.

Poverty is getting worse

For the moment, the former Portuguese colony remains mired in excessive debt, caused by the scandal of hidden loans taken out at the beginning of the 2010s to acquire military equipment, and is suffering from insufficient economic performance to absorb still strong demographic growth. It is classified CCC + by international rating agencies, synonymous with a high risk of payment default. Over the past ten years, 10% of Mozambicans have joined the ranks of those living below the poverty line. Some 60% of the country’s population now lives below this threshold, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It is with this assessment that Daniel Chapo, 47 years old, former professor of political science and ex-radio presenter, will face three opposition candidates whose divisions could prove to be his main asset: Ossufo Momade, at the head of the main opposition force from the former anti-communist rebellion National Resistance of Mozambique (Renamo), Lutero Simango of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) and independent candidate Venancio Mondlane.

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