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Weave its political web and make its way to the next presidential election. Six months after the violent demonstrations which followed his arrest in March, after a complaint for rape, Ousmane Sonko, one of the main Senegalese opponents, continues to advance his pawns. Launch of a coalition, regular presence on social networks, local establishment of his party … The one who came third in the 2019 presidential election is trying to find a place for himself in a fragmented political landscape.
The next key deadline, he knows, will be that of the local elections scheduled for January 23, 2022. In this perspective, Ousmane Sonko has agreed to participate in the game of alliances, an essential part of political life in Senegal. At the beginning of September, he launched the Yewwi Askan Wi (“Free the people” in Wolof) coalition with the party of the former mayor of Dakar, the very popular Khalifa Sall, and the Unity and Rally Party (PUR ), by Serigne Moustapha Sy, an influential religious leader.
“Since 2000, all the alternations have been the victories of coalitions. To win, it is necessary to unite ”, explains Bassirou Diomaye Faye, founding member of Ousmane Sonko’s party, the Senegalese Patriots for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef).
“Caught up in realpolitik”
A choice which is not without risk for the one who has built his success on a virulent criticism of the political class, qualified as corrupt. “Even if he continues to present himself as anti-system in his speech, in practice he is less radical and he is ready to unite with other more traditional parties to have access to the decision-making circle”, observes political analyst Abdou Khadre Lo, for whom the opponent was “Overtaken by realpolitik”.
And for good reason: the Pastef, created in 2014, does not yet have a real territorial network. Its popularity is especially strong among the urban youth of the middle class and the diaspora. “To win the local elections, the Pastef will have to invest the countryside, the rural world and succeed in speaking to women, the unemployed and those over 40”, analysis Jean-Charles Biagui, lecturer and researcher in political science at Cheikh-Anta-Diop University in Dakar.
Another major issue: Ousmane Sonko is still under judicial control. Since the death of senior investigating magistrate Samba Sall in April, no one has been appointed to take over the case. A status quo denounced by Bamba Cissé, his lawyer: “He is not deprived of his electoral rights because he has not been convicted, but he cannot travel abroad. This prevents him from visiting the Senegalese diaspora, which is nevertheless one of its strong electoral supporters. “
In Ousmane Sonko’s camp, we are confident. According to those around him, the events of March did not tarnish the image of the leader. Quite the contrary. “It was at this time that we became aware of the real size of the party and its capacity for mobilization”, believes Bassirou Diomaye Faye. As for the strengthening of its local presence, it is underway: “Today, we are established everywhere. It takes patience for the profiles of some of our representatives at the decentralized level to grow. “
Wade’s party turned its back on him
It is difficult to know if Ousmane Sonko’s strategy will pay off. In any case, he has not yet succeeded in uniting the entire opposition: Bougane Gueye Dany, press boss and head of the opposition coalition Gueum Sa Bopp, has withdrawn, as has the historic Party. Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS), led by former President Abdoulaye Wade, who turned his back on him at the last moment to launch his own coalition with other experienced opposition leaders.
In the absence of opinion polls, the next election will be a test before the legislative elections of 2022 and the presidential elections of 2024. “For the opposition, these local elections are an opportunity to reverse the trend and open up a perspective for peaceful and democratic alternation. If the ruling coalition emerges weakened, this will discourage [le président] Macky Sall to run for a third term ”, anticipates Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
On the power side, we say we are confident. Aymérou Gningue, president of the majority parliamentary group, believes that the opposition coalitions represent only one “Tiny part of the current departmental and municipal councilors”, against a broad base of the presidential coalition, Benno Bokk Yakaar, “Who has experience and a balance sheet to present to the populations”.
In the meantime, the Pastef is continuing its very offensive communication strategy. “Sonko is very followed when he gives press conferences or direct on social networks”, underlines Abdou Khadre Lo, according to who he is “The most active majority opponent”.