MWednesday June 12, three days after the European election, a handful of European national-populist leaders met in Brussels. In front of the cameras, they rejoice at the new situation, “thanks to Macron”. Geert Wilders, from the Dutch PVV, says: “He’s a good enemy. » Marine Le Pen adds: ” We will miss him ! » The Italian Matteo Salvini watches the exchange, all smiles.
This small scene well sums up the unprecedented entanglement taking place between European politics and national political arenas. Indeed, the elections from June 6 to 9 have an impact on two tables.
On the one hand, of course, they change the composition of the European Parliament, where we see a shift to the right, without this being a real landslide. On the other hand, in a more indirect way, the vote reshuffles the cards for the national leaders meeting within the European Council: who wins, who loses, who is forced to act? This is how we can understand this paradox: the shock decision taken by the French president to dissolve the National Assembly constitutes the major political event of these elections, and also from a European point of view.
Let’s look at these two tables more closely. As for the European Parliament, no real surprises. Certainly, the nationalist parties will have around a quarter of the elected representatives. But despite this anticipated breakthrough, they have long struggled to form a solid bloc at European level. Historical differences and mutual distrust – for example between the nationalist Poles, resolutely anti-Russian, and the Hungarians of Fidesz, close to the Kremlin – have prevented them from going beyond the stage of declarations of intent, at least until now.
Unprecedented situation
The political center is holding on. In the new Parliament, the three political families: the Christian Democrats (EPP), the Social Democrats (S&D) and the Liberals (Renew) retain their current majority (around 400 seats out of 720). This is the decisive fact of the vote, which will determine the functioning of the new Parliament as well as the presidency and the program of the next European Commission between now and 2029.
Before the elections, the right wing of the EPP, prisoner of an overly progressive coalition with the S&D and Renew, courted the group of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, as a potential new ally to its right. M’s left-wing partnersme von der Leyen nevertheless warned her: every vote contributed by the far right to her renewal would be lost among theirs. Message received on Sunday evening. The current coalition of the EPP, S&D and Renew intends to continue its line, “pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-rule of law”as von der Leyen said.
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