in the hospital, the first signals of the fourth wave

The fourth wave is affecting France more and more clearly. The exponential increase in SARS-CoV-2 contaminations observed for three weeks is confirmed with an increase of 143% over seven days, according to the epidemiological bulletin of July 22 of Public Health France. The national incidence rate is now 108 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in one week, more than double the alert threshold.

This rebound, which began in the ranks of 20-29 years, now extends to all age groups, with initial repercussions on the hospital. For the first time in fifteen weeks, there has been a clear increase in the hospitalization rate (+ 55% during the week of July 12 to 18, compared to the previous one, with 1,215 hospitalizations of patients with Covid-19) and number of patients admitted to critical care services (+ 35%, with 208 new admissions).

Worrisome pace of progression

If the strain on hospital services still appears to be limited, far from the congestion of previous waves, the rate of progress is nevertheless causing concern. “In view of the contagiousness of the Delta variant, the vaccine coverage of the elderly and fragile populations is still clearly insufficient so that we can be sure that the impact on the health system will not be, in the coming weeks, significant. “, Laëtitia Huiart, scientific director of the National Public Health Agency, warned during a press conference on July 23.

The vaccine campaign has been progressing at a steady pace since the announcement of the extension of the health pass, but more than 5 million people suffering from at least one pathology have not yet been vaccinated against Covid-19, it said on Thursday. ‘Health Insurance. So many people are more at risk of developing severe forms of the disease if they encounter the virus. A million people over 75 and just over a million between 65 and 74 still have not had an injection.

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In this context, “contact tracing” is complicated by the multiplication of contaminations. With a worrying phenomenon: data collected by Public Health France suggests “That a growing proportion of contact persons at risk were not identified”. Two hypotheses are put forward to explain it: in bars, which are the places among the most cited by infected people, meet many strangers whose identification is almost impossible. And sick people contacted by Medicare are more reluctant to share their contact list.

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