Despite several slumps and question marks in recent weeks, Team USA remains the number one favorite for gold. Nevertheless, legend Steve Kerr’s team is not unbeatable. The keys to a German sensational victory in the semi-finals lie in the zone and the pace of play.
Steve Kerr was satisfied, but kept perspective: “It was better for us to suffer a defeat sometimes. That brought us together. It was an immensely important experience for us that taught us a lot about the FIBA game. This is different than in the NBA. These are great teams that show continuity, play their game, have an identity.”
With these words, nine-time NBA champion Kerr, the secret star of this US basketball team, reacted to the shocking and embarrassing 104:110 defeat in the last group game against Lithuania in Manila. At home in the USA, fans and media were overwhelmed with malice. There was talk of everything from “overestimated” to “embarrassing” to “planless”.
The 57-year-old’s decision to nominate a relatively small squad for the World Cup in Asia was his downfall last Friday against the Balts. Only four players are at least 2.08 meters tall, the formations are very much designed for wing play with little presence under the baskets. The first group stage defeat by a US team since 2002 exposed both the gold favorites’ major weaknesses and the blueprint for a victory against the Americans, who were actually considered unbeatable. At the same time, the bankruptcy seems to have woken up Kerr’s team.
Vulnerable to physicality and on the board
In the first knockout round game, the quarterfinals against Italy, the US team got off to a furious start. From the first minute there was no doubt who would progress to the semi-finals. “We played with a lot of energy and very aggressively against Italy,” analyzed Kerr after the 100:63 dismantling. “That will also be necessary against Germany. They are very good, probably the best team overall in this tournament so far. They are a unit, very well coached and have a lot of continuity. They are a physically very strong team against which we have to play excellently to beat them.”
The Americans dominated bench points (57:20) for the fifth time in six games, largely thanks to the production of Tyrese Haliburton (18 points) and Austin Reaves (12). Some of the key duels on Friday will therefore take place in the backup positions, where both opponents are among the best teams in the tournament (an average of 50.5 bench points for the USA and 40.2 for the DBB). Germany secured its quarter-final victory against Latvia thanks in particular to an even greater point difference among the backups (44:6) and their enviable depth. Perhaps the greatest strength of both teams could neutralize each other.
Another big advantage of Gordon Herbert’s team is their size and physicality. The Germans can operate with two big men and a jumbo wing like Franz Wagner (2.08 meters), work on the boards and unleash their power in the zone. The US boys are extremely vulnerable, especially when it comes to rebounding. This was evident not only in the defeat against Lithuania, but also before that against Montenegro. Jonas Valanciunas (12 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks) and Nikola Vucevic (21 points, 16 rebounds, 2 blocks) presented the Americans’ central defense with sometimes insoluble problems, and ring protector Jaren Jackson received five fouls in 15 minutes. The aim is to attack him, force him tirelessly into the pick-and-roll and put pressure on him with aggressive drives into the zone.
Pace as the biggest key
The better Germany works on the boards, the more the third place in the European Championship can control the pace of the game. Both in their own attack after defensive rebounds and in preventing the devastating American transition game, which develops its avalanche-like energy especially after the opponent’s missed throws. How Herbert adjusts the balance between manning the offensive board and more conservative sprinting back and protecting his own basket will be crucial.
The USA loves to exploit its athletic advantages on the fast break. With 26.0 transition points per game, the Americans score more than twice as many as Germany (11.0 on average). Their energy is increased when they can spectacularly refine their defensive aggressiveness (10 steals per game, number one at this World Cup). Luckily, Germany is one of the most secure teams in the tournament (third place with only 10.2 ball losses per game). “They are the best team in the tournament when it comes to forcing ball losses. It is important for us that we force them into the halfcourt game,” says DBB coach Gordon Herbert in the preview of the game. Germany must minimize the number of American possessions and slow down the pace of play as much as possible. The faster the action, the more Team USA benefits.
“We have so many guys who are fast and agile and can dribble well,” said Kerr at the final training session. “It’s much easier to attack a defense before it can form, so that’s our focus.” Actors like Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton and Mikal Bridges also impress in the NBA thanks to their ability to both score points themselves and put those around them in the limelight.
“Ant-Man” is the superstar
No one embodies American lightness and individual quality better than Edwards. Despite being only 22 years old, “Ant-Man” is already one of the best-known names in the best league in the world. He is already an All-Star and one of the best scorers in the NBA. At this World Cup, he seems to be making his breakthrough into a superstar on the international stage, similar to LeBron James or Kevin Durant before him.
His game is like himself: dynamic, athletic, equipped with unshakable self-confidence… and fun. Always with a smile on his face, always smiling. No matter whether in training, in front of the assembled media or during the game. Nothing is fake there. Edwards is like that, relaxed because he knows he can find the basket at any time. He leads the United States in scoring (17.2 points per game), scoring in double digits five times in a row. Against Lithuania he narrowly missed the World Cup record set by the US team with 35 points (Kevin Durant, 38).
Against Italy, the coaching staff urged him to slow down his throwing attempts in order to bring more balance to the US game. With success: Edwards only took six throws from the field and instead focused on defending and distributing the ball. “Ant can score 30 in his sleep. But he’s so unselfish and he’s happy with it and he infects our team with it,” said Mikal Bridges, the Brooklyn Nets star who scored 24 points against Italy to win the match.
Reaves (11.0 points per game), Brunson (10.0), Haliburton (leading assist provider on the team with 5.0 assists per game), Josh Hart (leading rebounder with 6.0 rebounds per game) and Paolo Banchero, the Wagner’s young teammates on the Orlando Magic complete a large part of the rotation. Kerr’s team is so deep that NBA All-Stars like Brandon Ingram (New Orleans Pelicans) or Jaren Jackson Jr. (Memphis Grizzlies) only play a marginal role here, unlike in the league.
Big favorite, but beatable
Kerr, who won the gold medal as a player at the World Cup in Spain in 1986 and a total of nine NBA championships as a player (Chicago Bulls, San Antonio Spurs) and coach (Golden State Warriors), will have to find the right mix again against Germany. Less star power as a collective, less American, relaxed dominance in one-on-one situations and more team-serving, focused team basketball that thrives on cuts, movement, passing and concentrated work. After all, Herbert’s team is the last remaining team undefeated at this World Cup.
Despite several stumbles in recent weeks, the USA remains the number one favorite for gold. Even if the big superstars like LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are missing this time, no other team can bring this mix of individual excellence, power and defensive versatility to the floor. If they keep the pressure on, play fast and stay focused, things look bleak for opponents. Nevertheless, both the preparation and this World Cup have shown that they are not unbeatable.
It wasn’t just Germany’s basketball icon Dirk Nowitzki who said this before the World Cup – it was also proven by the test match in Abu Dhabi on August 20th, when Germany led by 16 points at one point and only narrowly lost in the end. The shock victory of the Lithuanians last Sunday did the rest. Nobody here in Manila fears the Americans. “They are the favorites. They have the pressure,” said Germany captain Dennis Schröder the day before the big duel. “We achieved what we wanted. So in the end we can play freely. It’s 40 minutes. Whoever plays the hardest and hits the shots wins. The 50:50 balls are important. We absolutely have to get them. Of course “We have a chance to win the game. That’s always the case in basketball.”