Inflation continued to accelerate in March in the United States, to 3.5% over one year compared to 3.2% in February, according to the consumer price index (CPI) published on Wednesday April 10 by the Labor Department, once again disappointing analysts who expected a less marked increase. The increase in consumer prices, on the other hand, remained unchanged in March, at 0.4%, as in February, while the consensus anticipated a slight deceleration, to 0.3% according to MarketWatch.
“Underlying” inflation, that is to say excluding energy and food and therefore considered less volatile, has not changed over one year, at 3.8%, while analysts hoped to see it continue to rise. gradual slowdown, over one month, to 0.4% compared to February, the slight slowdown of which was already expected.
As since the start of the year, inflation remains largely dependent on the prices of gasoline, housing and transport. Conversely, food prices, the evolution of which is particularly noticeable for consumers, remain almost unchanged for the second month in a row.
A campaign issue
The evolution of prices in the United States is a particularly sensitive subject in this election year, while the outgoing president, Joe Biden, initially tried to focus his campaign on the success of his economic policy. However, voters’ perceptions turned out to be very different from macroeconomic data, particularly due to the rise in prices observed for more than two years.
The CPI index is the one on which Americans’ pensions are indexed. But the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) favors another measure, the PCE index, whose data for March will be published on April 26. The CPI index gives a significantly more important place in its evaluation of price developments to the amount of rents than does the PCE index.
The inflation curve is watched closely by the Fed, which has been fighting against its rise for more than two years. Its main tool to deal with this has been to raise rates, between March 2022 and July 2023. The institution now plans to start lowering them this year. But its officials have largely procrastinated in recent weeks, saying they prefer to wait several months to be certain that inflation is not likely to rebound.