On August 29, the Ukrainian army launched its largest counter-offensive since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24. Three weeks later, on September 21, Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 300,000 reservists to support his war effort, seriously destabilized by this lightning operation. The world takes stock of the events that have so far enabled Ukraine to retake some 6,000 square kilometers of territory from the Russian army, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A quick and well-prepared operation
kyiv has designed its counter-offensive on two main axes: in the direction of the Kharkiv oblast (in the North-East), whose capital of the same name is the second largest city in the country – 1.4 million inhabitants before the war –, and to that of Kherson (in the South). In the Kharkiv sectorseized by Russia in February, it only took six days, from September 6 to 11, for the Ukrainian forces to decimate or rout their enemies.
The major catch was the city ofIzioum (47,000 inhabitants before the war): it was the rear base of the Kremlin to attack the north of neighboring Donbass. But it is the whole region that has been regained. The winds of panic among the Kremlin soldiers enabled the Ukrainians to conquer thousands of square kilometers, to kill or take prisoner hundreds, at least, of Russian soldiers and to capture a lot of enemy material.
The operation began with the breakthrough of ten Ukrainian brigades concentrated around the village of Iavirske. In two days, the Ukrainians advanced fifteen kilometers. According to the analysis of the ex-colonel and Russian warlord Igor Girkin, on the social network Telegram, this dazzling breakthrough allowed them to approach the enemy to the point of preventing him from responding with his artillery.
Several special forces units then charged towards Kupyansk, 50 kilometers further, cutting off one of the main supply routes for the Russian army towards the north of Donbass. The Russians were pushed back to the border, north of Kharkiv.
To the south of this zone, several localities were reconquered on Tuesday, September 20, in the north of the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians have also regained a foothold in the Luhansk region by seizing Bilohorivka.
The counter-offensive in Kherson region, begun on August 29, progressed more laboriously, on a front 200 kilometers long. The preparation was made by continuous strikes on the logistic nodes coming from Crimea, the means of transport, the concentrations of troops and equipment, the depots of ammunition and the centers of command.
The operations were meticulously prepared. In Kharkiv Oblast, the coverage provided by the forests and the knowledge of the times of passage of the Russian surveillance satellites allowed kyiv to install its device discreetly, according to the analysis of Joseph Henrotin, researcher at the Institute of Comparative Strategy.
As early as June, the Ukrainian general staff had hinted that an operation was being prepared in the south of the country. This rumor had the effect of loosening the grip exerted by the troops of Moscow in the Donbass, and of stripping the north of the front, the Russians deciding to send part of their forces to the region of Kherson to fortify their positions there. .
Ukraine’s gains sign the Kremlin’s second major failure after that of the initial offensive on kyiv, at the very beginning of hostilities. On the strength of these successes, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as his Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznikov, have made no secret of their intention to succeed in restoring the Russian-Ukrainian border of 1991, which implies retaking Donbass, but also the Crimea annexed by Russia in 2014.
The decisive role of the United States
The considerable military aid granted to kyiv, mainly by the United States, is making a difference on the ground, as is the training of Ukrainian soldiers of formidable tactical efficiency. “We could not have taken back these territories without the help of the United States”, acknowledged Mr. Zelensky during a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to kyiv on 8 September.
Since February 24, Washington has delivered $14.5 billion worth of equipment to kyiv, including:
- More than 40,000 man-portable anti-tank missiles,
- 126 x 155mm M777 guns,
- 1,400 suicide drones,
- 20 Mi-17 helicopters,
- 1,400 Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles,
- 8 Nasam surface-to-air missile batteries,
- 200 M113 armored vehicles and several hundred Humvees.
It is not only the number, but also the quality of these materials that have helped kyiv beat Moscow, with some of them effectively hitting Russian forces up to 80 kilometers behind the front line. The United States also delivered enough ammunition – including 800,000 155mm shells – to cope with the Russian artillery firepower.
The Pentagon also revealed, on Monday, September 12, that it had trained some 1,500 soldiers in the use of its equipment in recent months. The Americans also share intelligence information with Ukraine and take part in planning operations.
Macabre discoveries in the wake of retirement
After the reconquest of the town of Izium by the forces of kyiv, 445 graves and a mass grave were discovered by chance, in a pine forest, on September 15, thanks to a demining operation. According to witnesses and a Ukrainian investigator, some victims were killed by bullets and others by artillery fire, mines or airstrikes. Some bodies show signs of torture, said the head of the Kharkiv prosecutor’s office, Oleksandr Filchakov. At least one exhumed corpse had its hands tied with rope. The victims are probably ” in majority ” civilians, according to local authorities.
Russia is acting “dreadful way”commented the head of the American diplomacy, Antony Blinken. “Russia, its political leaders and all those implicated in the continued violations of international law and international humanitarian law in Ukraine will be held to account”, said the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. As for Volodymyr Zelensky, he denounced the crimes of an army of “torturers”, and promised a “terribly just punishment”.
The Kremlin army out of soldiers
For its part, the Russian army is experiencing shortcomings. Its anti-aircraft defense, built around the S-300 and S-400 systems, reputed to be among the best in the world of their kind, has notably failed, on several occasions, to thwart Ukrainian attacks from the sky.
But it suffers above all from a shortage of staff. In six months, its losses are between 25,000 soldiers – according to the average estimate of European intelligence services – and 80,000 soldiers according to the Pentagon, which aggregates the dead and the demobilized. These estimates are very far from the official report put forward on September 21 by the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, who mentioned 5,937 killed. The Russian contingent directly participating in the invasion of Ukraine would number between 150,000 and 200,000 soldiers.
Faced with the difficulties, the Kremlin announced, Wednesday, September 21, the mobilization of 300,000 reservists, aged 65 for the oldest. Two days earlier, Russian deputies had passed a law providing for prison terms – three years – for those who refused to answer the call. On September 5, Vladimir Putin had already ordered the government to guarantee to the volunteers that they could find their jobs. Finally, several sources, including Vladimir Ossetchkine, the founder of the human rights NGO Gulagu.net, and the Russian news site The Insiderreport that a campaign to recruit detainees is underway.
Putin brandishes the nuclear threat again
Challenged on the ground of conventional warfare, Vladimir Putin once again brandished the nuclear threat. He still considers that regions of eastern Ukraine have a vocation to join his country – the pro-Russian authorities of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporijia moreover announced, on September 20, referendums on joining Russia – ; Consequently, “when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people, this is not bluffing”, he said on September 21 on Russian television.
Furthermore, the Zaporijia power station, whose six 1,000 megawatt reactors each make the largest nuclear site in Europe, remains under Russian military occupation.