Petro Potapenko observes piles of grain in his silo in the kyiv region. Like many other Ukrainian farmers, he wonders if he will be able to export his production in the face of restrictions imposed by several neighbors. “It’s a big problem, we still have large grain surpluses,” says the 34-year-old farmer, whose father founded the farm three decades ago in the village of Kypiatchka, about 100 kilometers away. south of Kyiv.
Temporary bans
Poland and other European Union countries bordering Ukraine recently imposed temporary bans on Ukrainian grain exports following protests by local farmers over collapsing prices linked to an influx of grain. A consequence of the Russian invasion launched in February 2022, which severely limited the traditional export channel for Ukrainian cereals via the Black Sea, and redirected a considerable part of these exports to the EU.
Last week, Warsaw banned the entry of dozens of types of Ukrainian foodstuffs, mainly cereals, without consulting Kiev, one of the world’s main exporters, or the European Commission, drawing their criticism. Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria followed by imposing similar temporary bans.
“Europe is closed”
On the ground, the consequences were immediate for Petro Potapenko, who today has trouble selling his sunflower surpluses. As soon as the Polish ban was announced, Ukrainian sunflower oil manufacturers stopped buying seeds, for lack of a guarantee of being able to export their production to the EU. “As a result, I can no longer sell my seeds”, explains the farmer.
“Europe is closed, the ports are closed, we have nowhere to sell our grain,” laments Igor Novytsky, deputy director of an agricultural company in the Cherkassy region (center). If the restrictions continue, many Ukrainian farmers, especially in the east, “will simply go bankrupt”, he fears.
Resumption of transit
If Poland announced the resumption of transit on Friday after discussions, Ukrainian farmers are far from reassured. Especially since Warsaw has promised to strictly control transit, in particular with electronic seals equipped with GPS trackers on transport. In addition, Polish customs officers will escort the trucks for a week. “It may be a little better” than the total blockade, but “additional controls” at the border will increase logistical costs, predicts Petro Potapenko. “The more time the carrier wastes, the more it will charge you later for the time spent queuing, passing inspections,” he says.
Tensions between kyiv and its European neighbors have arisen as uncertainty looms over the scheduled May 18 renewal of the Black Sea grain corridor, through which an estimated 60% of Ukrainian exports pass. Russia, another major global grain exporter, threatened to suspend the crucial global supply deal, complaining that its own production was hampered by the sanctions. The control of grain-laden boats in the Bosphorus, a key part of the agreement sealed between Kiev and Moscow under the aegis of Turkey and the UN, has already slowed down and Ukraine accuses Russia of dragging out inspections of cereals.
Industry disruption
In Ukraine, many believe they see Moscow’s hand behind the crisis with neighboring countries which have so far strongly supported kyiv in the face of the Russian invasion. “It smacks of Russian involvement,” Andriï Dykoun, head of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council association, told AFP. “Someone organizes the protests (of European farmers), publicizes them, it does not happen by itself”, he believes to know. Launched in the east, south and north of Ukraine, the Russian invasion of 2022 turned the agricultural industry upside down in this country when, renowned for its very fertile black soils, it was the world’s fourth largest exporter of maize and on the way to becoming the third exporter of wheat.
Since then, vast cultivated territories have been under Russian occupation, in the combat zone or have seen their fields strewn with mines and shells. The area sown has fallen and the grain and oilseed harvest has fallen from 106 million tonnes in 2021 — a record — to 65 million tonnes in 2022. It could fall further to around 50-55 million tonnes this year, according to experts.