by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to rise slightly on Monday at the start of a week devoted mainly to central banks where caution should prevail while recent data published in the United States have revived concern on a possible postponement of the monetary easing expected in the country.
According to the first available indications, the Parisian CAC 40 should gain 0.22% at opening. The Dax in Frankfurt could gain 0.09%, while the FTSE 100 in London should gain 0.06%. The EuroStoxx 50 index is expected to increase by 0.02%.
The central banks of Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway are meeting this week and a decision is expected on Tuesday for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) which could end its negative rates in a context of rising inflation and rising wages.
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In the United States, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) is working on the contrary to curb demand, the resilience of the economy and the surprise rise in consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) have awakened inflationary fears. The American central bank is expected to announce a new status quo on its rates on Wednesday, but investors will mainly focus on the “dot plots”, the graph representing estimates of the evolution of the cost of credit.
Goldman Sachs indicated on Monday that it now anticipates a rate cut in the United States of only 75 points this year compared to 100 points previously, while JP Morgan reduced its forecast in this area from 125 points to 75 points.
The Fed’s announcements will be followed on March 21 by those of the Bank of England (BoE), which is waiting for more clarity on the evolution of wages to begin lowering its rates.
In the euro zone, where the European Central Bank (ECB) met at the start of the month and paved the way for a rate cut in June, final data on consumer prices in the bloc on Monday will be due confirm a slowdown in inflationary pressures at the risk of disappointing.
A WALL STREET
The New York Stock Exchange ended down on Friday, weighed down by large stocks in the technology sector, a movement of consolidation of indices now at record levels and volatility linked to the expiry of options and futures contracts.
The Dow Jones index fell 0.49%, or 190.89 points, to 38,714.77 points.
The broader S&P-500 lost 33.06 points or 0.64%, to 5,117.42 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 155.36 points (-0.96%) to 15,973.17 points.
Over the week, the Dow Jones declined by 0.02%, the S&P lost 0.13% and the Nasdaq fell by 0.7%.
Adobe’s stock plunged more than 13% after second-quarter revenue guidance fell short of expectations.
IN ASIA
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index rebounded by 2.67% to 39,740.44 points, after losing 2.4% last week partly on profit-taking. The broader Topix gained 1.92% to 2,721.99 points.
The MSCI index bringing together stocks from Asia and the Pacific (excluding Japan) gained 0.3%, after falling 0.7% last week.
In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite gained 0.99% and the CSI 300 increased by 0.94%, the indices being driven in particular by industrial production, which increased more than expected over the January-February period. , by 7% at an annual rate, according to official data. Retail sales in China also increased more than expected, by 5.5% year-on-year, during the same period.
VALUES TO FOLLOW IN EUROPE:
CHANGES
The dollar is practically unchanged (-0.05%) against a basket of reference currencies.
The euro advanced 0.06% to $1.0893 and the pound sterling traded at $1.2733 (-0.05%).
The Russian ruble strengthened slightly on Monday, by 0.50% to 92.3975, against the American dollar the day after the announcement of the unsurprising re-election of Vladimir Putin, in power for almost a quarter of a century in Russia, for a fifth term.
RATE
The yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds is stable at 4.3004%, after reaching its highest level since February 22 at 4.310% last week.
The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity, benchmark for the euro zone, is also stalling, at 2.435%, after an increase of almost two basis points on Friday.
OIL
Oil prices continue to rise after a 4% rise last week amid tighter supply and heightened geopolitical risks.
Brent rose 0.420% to $85.70 per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.48% to $81.43.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA OF MARCH 18:
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD PREVIOUS CONSENSUS
EZ 10:00 Consumer prices February +0.6% -0.4%*
(final)
– over one year +2.6% +2.6%*
*first estimate
(Writing by Claude Chendjou, editing by Zhifan Liu and Kate Entringer)
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