Industry Outlook – All signs point to a recession

The Industrial Association’s quarterly economic survey currently paints a bleak picture; the last time the mood was this bad was 15 years ago.

The so-called business climate index is the barometer of Vorarlberg’s industry and has been collected quarterly since 2001. The current survey is – unfortunately – a historic one: the index shows a value of minus 20.90 points, which is the second worst result since records began. Only once was the mood among Vorarlberg’s industrial companies worse – at the beginning of the global economic crisis in 2008. Back then, 15 years ago, the world was staring into the abyss; only unprecedented rescue packages on both sides of the Atlantic ultimately prevented a systemic collapse. Even at the height of the corona pandemic, pessimism was not as pronounced as it is now. The majority of companies already rate the current order and earnings situation as poor, but the outlook is really bleak: According to this, only four percent of the companies surveyed believe that an economic recovery – 47 percent expect the business situation to remain unchanged, 49 percent even expect a further deterioration. “Excessive demands” In view of the autumn wage round, the business climate index also takes on a political dimension. In the past few weeks, the first companies in Vorarlberg have announced that they will be laying off employees. However, this is probably not the end of the line: “It must be expected that further employees will be released in the near future,” says IVV managing director Christian Zoll. In the addition, he blatantly waves the fence post in the direction of the employee associations: “Excessive demands in the current wage round are out of place!” Message is not well received A message that is not particularly well received by the addressees: “The constant calls from outside “The industrial association and the unbearable attempts to influence the collective bargaining negotiations should finally be stopped,” says ÖGB state chairman Reinhard Stemmer angrily.
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