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Experts’ forecasts for inflation vary. Energy prices could surprise.
“The peak is behind us, but we will see a small increase again,” explains Claude Maurer, an economist at Credit Suisse. The increase is due to the electricity bill. This will be higher for many households and companies at the beginning of the year, sometimes even significantly. Initially, this would drive inflation further.
Different forecasts of inflation
However, the effect is likely to evaporate in the months that follow, according to the tenor among the experts. While Claude Maurer is the most optimistic with a forecast annual increase of one and a half percent, Rudolf Minsch’s estimate is significantly more pessimistic.
The chief economist at the business umbrella organization Economiesuisse still expects average annual inflation of 2.7 percent in 2023, almost as high as this year. According to Minsch, inflation is a problem for companies: “They pay more for energy, for gas, for oil, but also more for raw materials and finished products.” The experts’ inflation forecasts for next year are relatively far apart.
The forecasts are reliable.
Just a year ago, experts massively underestimated the risk of inflation. Because with Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February, energy prices shot up. Nobody saw that coming.
“The forecasts are reliable,” emphasizes Felicitas Kemeny from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs Seco. But you have to embed them in the overall context of potential fluctuations in energy prices.
Energy prices will remain the big unknown in 2023 and are simply unpredictable. They can provide another negative surprise on the inflation front, but at best a positive turnaround.