After an unsurprising acceleration in French inflation to 6.5% over one year in June, a record level, the consumer price index in the euro zone will be the main meeting of the day on Friday. The statistics will be revealed at 11 a.m. Analysts forming the Bloomberg consensus anticipate figures at the top, with inflation at 8.5% over one year, against 8.1% in May. The core index, which excludes food and energy, should rise by 3.9% over the same period.
” The surge in prices, particularly of raw materials, has taken the European Central Bank on the wrong foot, which was expecting a moderation from the start of 2022.explained the research office Oddo BHF earlier this week. But who could have predicted that Russia would invade Ukraine, an event that is largely responsible for the recent acceleration in inflation? It exceeds 8% over one year, a quasi-doubling in six months, and from now on, no one would venture to affirm that we cannot go higher. » The economic sanctions against the Kremlin now pose a risk of shortages in gas, but also in agricultural products, which should not pull prices down.
A heterogeneous dynamic
On the other side of the Atlantic, operators will analyze the evolution of activity in the manufacturing sector with the ISM index, which will be unveiled at 4 p.m. The indicator is expected to fall to 54.7 in June, from 56.1 the previous month. Oddo BHF believes that “ the tensions on the production chains seem too strong and persistent to avoid a frank correction of the index which, at more than 56 points, does not fit with an economy that is announced to be on the verge of recession “. For the main European countries, we will know the final manufacturing PMI indices which should remain above the 50 point mark, which separates the expansion zone from the contraction phase of activity. However, activity is less strong in France, where the PMI index stands at 51 points, against an average of 52 points in the euro zone. Within the Middle Kingdom, the dynamic is improving, as shown the June manufacturing PMI index calculated by IHS Markit and published by the Caixin media group. It rose at its strongest pace in 13 months, to 51.7, driven by a solid rebound in production as health restrictions were lifted.
Among the other statistics to follow, still in the United States, vehicle sales are expected to rebound to 13.4 million after a decline in May, as are construction expenses which would increase by 0.4% over one month in May (Bloomberg consensus).
RG