Inflation remained stable in May, at 2.2%, according to figures published Friday May 31 by INSEE, confirming the disinflation trajectory which should lead towards 2% year-on-year, the objective set by the Bank. European Central (ECB). The prices of services, which had become the driving force of inflation, have slowed down: over twelve months, they have increased by only 2.7%, instead of 3% in recent months. Manufactured goods and food remained flat. The main development concerns energy, whose prices increased by 5.8% compared to May 2023, a period when they were particularly low.
“ Overall, we are getting back on track, even if there may be ups and downs from one month to the next. », assures Mathieu Plane, deputy director of the Analysis and forecasts department of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions. He estimates that this figure of 2% will be reached in the second part of 2024. A diagnosis shared by Stéphane Colliac, economist at BNP Paribas, who even sees inflation returning to 2% from September. Until then, “ In the short term, we will see pockets of inflation persist in services such as air transport or catering, linked in particular to the summer season and the Olympic Games. », he notes. Core inflation…
The inflationary crisis therefore now seems to be behind us, but households are still showing great caution in their spending, despite a slight increase in purchasing power expected in 2024, “estimated at 1% per consumption unit », Indicates Mathieu Plane. Consumption fell by 0.8% in May, a relapse after a very slight rebound of 0.4% in the first quarter.
Service-led growth
“ Even if inflation slows, prices remain high, especially the prices of what people consume on a daily basis. Since January 2021, prices have increased by 14% on average, but those of food have increased by 23% and those of energy by 48%. %”, recalls Clémentine Gallès, chief economist at Société Générale Private Banking.
Another explanation: consumption patterns are changing. Rather than accumulating goods – clothing, shoes, decoration or household equipment – the French are increasingly favoring services. This is evidenced by the figures from the Federation of e-commerce and distance selling for the first quarter: online sales increased overall by 2.1%, but this growth is driven by services, and in particular travel. , up 13.3%.
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