Inflation slows to 5.6% in March year on year, but food prices continue to climb

Is peak inflation finally behind us? After reaching 6.3% in February over one year, inflation slowed to 5.6% in March, according to the first estimate from INSEE, published on Friday. “This fall in inflation would be due to the slowdown in energy prices“, explains INSEE, more precisely “due to a further drop in the price of petroleum products“, caused by the fall in the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, a benchmark in Europe.

On the other hand, food prices continued to accelerate in March, to +15.8% year on year after +14.8% in February, following trade negotiations between distributors and manufacturers, which resulted in significant price increases. The prices of manufactured goods and tobacco also accelerated in March, while those of services slowed. Over one month, consumer prices increased by 0.8% in March, after +1% in February, also notes INSEE.

This result is in line with the INSEE projections communicated last month. In its last note on the economy, the National Institute of Statistics estimated that the rise in consumer prices would remain on “a tray» high until February, before gradually receding from March, to fall back to 5% in June. “This does not mean that the price level would fall, it means that overall, the price index would change less quickly than a year ago“, had underlined Julien Pouget, head of the department of the economic situation of INSEE.

For his part, the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire is now counting on a decline in inflation “around mid-2023», when the Governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, estimates that the peak of inflation will be reached this first half.