Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory are increasing rapidly. The main purpose of Kiev is to send a signal to the Russian population, says drone expert Ulrike Franke in the interview. The fact that there have been no casualties in the attacks so far could be intentional: “The meanness of this war is that the Ukrainians have to wage a cleaner war than the Russians.” In an interview, Franke explains the role played by cardboard drones in the attacks and why the detonated drones in Romania are “not particularly surprising”.
ntv.de: Russia reports Ukrainian drone attacks almost every day. Almost 300 Ukrainian drones are said to have been shot down in the past week alone. Did this sudden wave of attacks on Russian territory surprise you?
dr Ulrike Franke did her PhD on drones and is currently working at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Paris.
Ulrike Franke: At least it looks like we are seeing a change in Ukrainian tactics. Ukraine has developed a great deal of drone capabilities over the past year and a half. So it didn’t surprise me that it’s capable of attacking targets in Russia as well. It seems to me more like they specifically chose to launch more attacks now, maybe as a kind of second front in the counter-offensive. This certainly has something to do with the fact that they now have more drones than on the first day of the war. But this is primarily a political decision.
What is the aim of these attacks?
First, to destroy military targets, such as Russian aircraft or ammunition depots. Of course, it is fantastic for Ukraine when it can destroy a transport plane or a supersonic aircraft with a drone. The military damage is still limited. I therefore believe that she wants to send a signal with it.
Namely which one?
They want to show the Russians: “You are at war and it can also happen to you”. It also shows that the Russian military is not necessarily capable of protecting the population from such attacks.
Last week there were reports from Russian war bloggers complaining that Russia’s air defenses were incapable of protecting the Russian people. Is it just a matter of time before a drone hits its target, injuring or even killing civilians?
Not all drones were intercepted by the Russians, and some did indeed achieve their goal. But even when shot down, falling debris can hit people. The question is rather how powerful these attacks should be. It is clear that Ukraine is at least willing to accept casualties. You can’t send an armed drone into areas with people and think nothing will happen there. However, the fact that no one has died in the attacks could indicate that the Ukrainians are at least not trying to do so. For example, there have been many attacks on business centers at night when nobody is there. Ukrainians are very aware that they have to be careful. That’s the meanness of this war, they need to fight a cleaner war than the Russians. If they started systematically attacking civilian targets and killing civilians – which Russia has been doing since the beginning of the war – it would cost Ukraine international support.
Does Moscow have to better arm itself against such attacks in the future?
If Ukraine goes ahead with drone strikes, it will be like a game of cat and mouse. The question arises as to whether Moscow will have to restructure and strengthen its anti-aircraft defense and eventually even retrieve equipment from the front. Ukraine has learned how to intercept drones over the past few years – Russia will have to learn more about that too.
What drones does Ukraine use for its attacks?
From what we know, they use different types. But that’s all based on grainy videos, analysis, and own testimonies. There are at least two Ukrainian-made drones, the UJ-22 and “Bober”, which appear to have been used in the attacks. And then recently there have been reports of a cardboard drone flying in Russian territory.
Is it really made of cardboard, as the name suggests?
Actually, it’s not that amazing at all. The Australians sent these drones to Ukraine back in March. Most drones are nothing more than a missile that is as light as possible. Usually it is made of hard plastic or styrofoam. These drones are made out of cardboard because it’s a light material and relatively strong if properly engineered. The system is easy to assemble and cheap. That’s what they were developed for, not specifically for Ukraine. The highlight of such systems is that they have a small radar signature.
Does that mean you can’t spot them that easily?
Exactly. The less metal is used, the less can be seen on the radar. However, the cardboard drones also have rotors and a motor, so they are not invisible. I just don’t know if and how many hours they can fly through the rain before it becomes a problem.
It’s also hard to imagine that they have enough power to carry a lot of explosives.
Yes, it’s already a small drone, which means less range and less carrying capacity. It carries around six kilograms of explosives and doesn’t fly hundreds of kilometers either. But they are getting more and more capable. However, the material is not the most interesting thing about the drones.
Rather?
Much more relevant is that it is Australian drones attacking Russian territory. It is believed that the Ukrainians copied the drone, but this is not certain. But if it is the equipment supplied by Australia, then Western drones are being used on Russian territory. Australia doesn’t seem to have complained about it yet, but that’s at least interesting because so far Ukraine has mostly tried to use home-made drones. And it is also a sign of strength for them that they have managed to develop new military equipment over the past year and a half.
Ukraine has also attacked Russian targets such as Pskov Airport near the border with Estonia – more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine. Do the drones have such a long range?
There is an incredible range of drones and some that can fly far. 700 kilometers is pretty good. But the question is where did they start? It is more plausible that this happened on Ukrainian soil. However, the Russian information chief has said that Ukrainian forces are also in Russia. The distance isn’t necessarily the biggest challenge though, it’s the control and radio signal over such a long distance. I don’t know how the Ukrainians do it – it could be via satellites, which could indicate Western support, or with relay drones.
What are relay drones?
It involves sending up two or more drones that relay radio signals in a chain. So one drone might fly 300 kilometers, and then redirect the signal to the other drone, which flies 700 kilometers.
How is it that the drones are not sighted or shot down over Russian or Belarusian territory on their 700-kilometer journey?
Drones in particular tend to be small, at least as a rule smaller than manned aircraft. They also fly lower. They also have a different radar signature and fly slower. Many systems that monitor airspace are not necessarily calibrated to detect such things. In addition, not the entire area is monitored. There is a lot of land between the Ukrainian border and Moscow.
Let’s talk about the drone attacks from the Russian side, after all, they happen every day. They are currently massively attacking Ukrainian grain silos near the Romanian border and are said to have also detonated in the NATO country. Can drones get lost like this?
Since the beginning of the war, Russia has been covering Ukraine with Iranian kamikaze drones, which are also not incredibly specialized systems. It is therefore not particularly surprising that they sometimes end up somewhere else. So I wouldn’t assume they were sent there. Drones that have just been shot down can come down somewhere. Most experts therefore assume that it was an accident. Romania is trying to downplay this because they don’t want to create a defensive case.
So it wouldn’t be a NATO defense case either?
It’s not anyway. With a view to NATO Article 5, there would first have to be attacks and then the attacked country would have to ask for help. We’re a long way from that. There is no automatism that World War III will break out after a Russian drone has landed on NATO territory. Ukraine has no interest in that either.
Vivian Micks spoke to Ulrike Franke