Expert Mangott in an interview
“Wagner was beheaded”
08/24/2023 1:58 p.m
The death of the Wagner boss can be confirmed with certainty Yevgeny Not Prigozhin. But there is much to be said for it, says Russia expert Gerhard Mangott in an interview with ntv.de. He thinks the most likely job was Putin’s assassination, for obvious reasons: show strength. For Russia, however, Wagner’s collapse could have negative consequences: “If it is not possible to continue a paramilitary presence in Africa, then that will be to the detriment of Russia,” said the expert.
ntv.de: How sure can we be that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is really dead?
Gerhard Mangott is a political scientist specializing in international relations and security research in the post-Soviet space.
Gerhard Mangott: Not at all if you apply strict standards. Nevertheless, Telegram channels close to Wagner reported his death yesterday, as well as the death of the actual founder of the Wagner Group, Dmitri Utkin. It is unlikely that they spread this message lightly. You should therefore have information that confirms that these two men and another Wagner security man were among the victims. There is also a confirmation from the Russian aviation authority, which of course is not a credible source. There is no certainty, but there is a lot to be said for it.
It is said of Putin: “Revenge is best served ice cold”. Is there a realistic scenario where Putin is not behind the deaths of the Wagner leadership?
The Prigozhin mutiny on June 23 was a sign of weakness and loss of control on the part of Putin. He was accused by certain circles in the leadership that he had reacted too softly to the uprising. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that members of the leadership eliminated Prigozhin without Putin’s knowledge. There is also speculation that all this was only staged to allow Prigozhin to go into hiding. But I don’t believe in that. The most likely explanation is a contract assassination by Putin, who, as he said in an interview in 2018, cannot forgive traitors. On the day of the mutiny, Putin called Prigozhin a traitor. At the time, it was clear that if Putin didn’t want to appear weak, then he would have to liquidate him. That has now obviously been done.
Can there ever be any certainty about Prigozhin’s death? Is there a credible source that could confirm this?
Wagner’s telegram channels also quote Prigozhin’s associates and friends who have tried to reach him and assume his death. Of course, it could be that he couldn’t be reached because the conspiracy theory of going into hiding is true. Statements from his environment are therefore not solid proof. There may never be 100% proof that Prigozhin was among the victims, but the likelihood is high.
There are rumors that the plane has been shot down. Can the first signs of this already be found?
There is a version that anti-aircraft missiles in the area shot down the machine. This cannot currently be proven. If so, shooting it down with anti-aircraft missiles would be a good technical option to bring the plane down. It is also possible that there was a bomb on board. Some also claim that it was just a technical defect in the jet, i.e. an accident.
How is the incident reported in the Russian media?
For a long time it was reported very cautiously that Prigozhin was on the passenger list, but nobody knew whether he was actually on board. There is no official confirmation of his death from the state media. Individual voices blame the West and Ukraine. But of course no one in the media raises the suspicion that the political leadership itself could be behind it.
Who benefits from the death of Prigozhin and who does it harm?
Primarily, it uses Putin. He can use it to show strength and intimidate doubters or opponents in leadership by showing, “Stand against me and this is the end of your existence”. At the same time, it also weakens Russia, because in Africa and the Middle East the Wagner fighters have done the dirty work for the Russian leadership. They are campaigning for Russian interests from the Central African Republic to Mali, Chad and Syria. As a result, Russia was able to significantly deepen relations with some African countries. The question now is: what happens to these soldiers in Africa? Will they keep fighting or will they retreat out of loyalty to Prigozhin and Utkin?
What do you think?
Failure to maintain a paramilitary presence in Africa will certainly be to Russia’s detriment. Continuing the presence without Prigozhin will not be easy.
Who could lead Wagner in the future? Is there an “heir to the throne” who could take over the business?
If the reports of the deaths of senior management are correct, then Wagner was beheaded. At the moment there is no one who could succeed Prigozhin. Threatened with revenge and said that the Kremlin would be conquered or that there would be a second “March of Justice to Moscow” in telegram channels. But not only was the leadership removed, but the Wagner fighters had to give up all their heavy weapons in the last two months, so that they are now much weaker militarily than they were on June 23rd. There can be individual actions, but Wagner lacks the strength for a massive revenge action.
Why were the two most important leaders, Prigozhin and Utkin, on the plane at all? Did you feel too safe?
Quite obviously. Of course, it was clear to everyone that Prigozhin was not out of the woods and was still in danger. The fact that both Valeri Chekalov, Prigozhin’s head of security, and commander Dmitri Utkin were on board is a bit strange and shows frivolity. It is still understandable that Chekalov was on board as the chief of security. But the fact that Utkin was on this plane at the same time shows carelessness and negligence – and it took revenge.
Wagner no longer fights at the front in the Ukraine. Does Prigozhin’s supposed death still have an impact on the fighting there?
The Russian army has had to do without the well-equipped fighters for a good two months and seems to be able to compensate for this. There are also other private military companies operating in Ukraine that work with the Ministry of Defense. But without Wagner, fighting power falls away, you can feel that. This cannot be replaced by other private military companies either. But not in a way that would put the Russian side on the defensive. One shouldn’t overestimate the Wagner group.
Vivian Micks spoke to Gerhard Mangott