by Ashitha Shivaprasad
Dec.31 (Reuters) – Specialist analysts have downgraded their oil price forecasts for 2022, as the spread of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus threatens to dampen the recovery in demand as part of the producing countries increase their production, shows a Reuters survey on Friday.
Conducted with 35 economists and financial analysts, it shows an average price forecast of 73.57 dollars for a barrel of Brent, or 2% less than in November. This is the first drop recorded for the 2022 estimates since August.
The price of US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is expected to average 71.38 dollars for the coming year, against 73.31 dollars in the November consensus.
“With the growth in demand for oil slowing, supply growth continuing, and energy market tensions easing, we expect the oil market balance to increase instead. decrease in 2022 and therefore expect prices to move down from current levels, “said Norbert Rücker, analyst at Swiss bank Julius Baer.
A barrel of Brent traded just below $ 80 on Friday and is heading for an increase of 52% over the year as a whole, thanks to the recovery in demand after the coronavirus crisis.
But the emergence in recent weeks of the Omicron variant, which has led many countries to announce new health restrictions, could slow down or even interrupt this recovery if these measures are extended or tightened.
Until the peak of the Omicron phase has passed, oil prices should remain volatile, explains Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, adding that the market must also take into account the gradual increase in production of Opec + .
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its major allies, grouped together under this name, are due to debate their production strategy next Tuesday, January 4. At their last meeting, they decided to stick with an increase in supply of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month.
“In terms of supply, the OPEC + strategy, the discussions between the United States and Iran on nuclear power and the speed of the resumption of American shale production will all play a role, but this will be secondary to the evolution of demand, “said Suvro Sarkar, analyst at DBS Bank.
The forecasts of the economists and analysts polled for demand growth in 2022 range between 3.2 and six million bpd.
(Report Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bangalore, French version Marc Angrand, edited by Sophie Louet)