Investors’ nerves are put to the test

Bitcoin (BTC): EMA200 on the 4-hour chart as a key resistance

BTC rate: $30,441 (previous day: $31,700)

Short-term resistances/goals: $30,612, $31,333/31,563, $32,205/32,383, $33,097, $33,714, $34,748, $35,650, $36,587, $37,452, $38,250, $39,322, $39,854, $39,854, $43,41,40,41,48,41,019

Short-term supports: $29,975, $29,256, $28,607, $28,000, $27,696, $26,170, $25,342, $23,887, $21,892, $19,884

Recap Bitcoin

• The crypto market continues to move in the wake of the major US stock indexes. Bitcoin price movements have again resembled those of the technology index Nasdaq100 in the last few trading days.
• The forecast directional decision is still a long time coming after another failed breakout on the upside on June 6th. As with the breakout attempt on May 31, the Bitcoin price failed at the moving average EMA200 (blue) in the 4-hour chart.
• On the positive side, Bitcoin did not form a lower low despite yesterday’s pullback to the support at $29,256. With that, this area appears to be acting as a good support level for now.
• If the bulls succeed in lifting the BTC price back above USD 30,612 in a timely manner and subsequently generating a daily closing price above USD 31,563, the chance of a renewed consistency test of USD 32,205 is likely to increase.
• The buyer camp must then try to stabilize the Bitcoin at the hourly closing rate above this resistance level.

• As long as Bitcoin does not fall back below yesterday’s daily low in the area of ​​USD 29,230, investors should continue to look north.
• Overall, the “Golden Pocket” at $26,170 is still acting as key support for the bull camp. As long as Bitcoin is trading above this support at the daily closing price, a recovery rally can be expected.
• According to the latest report by the onchain analysis platform Glassnode, one of the reasons for the weakness of the key cryptocurrency can be seen in increased Bitcoin sales by the large crypto mining companies. The miners are also struggling with increased production costs due to the rise in electricity prices worldwide. According to Coinglass, the companies are currently using their existing bitcoin reserves to cover the ongoing mining costs.
• Similar developments, albeit of a temporary nature, have already been observed in previous years. In the past, this circumstance only affected the price development of Bitcoin for a short time.
• As long as Bitcoin continues to move in its sideways range of the last few weeks of trading, investors have to wait for a sustained breakout of this range.

Bullish Scenario (BTC)

• The bulls failed several times in the last few trading days when trying to break out Bitcoin above the cross resistance from the upper edge of the range and EMA200. Again and again, the bears successfully held back and pushed the BTC price back below the key mark of USD 30,612.
• However, the buyer side was always there when Bitcoin threatened to break below the support at USD 29,256.
• Bitcoin is currently back in the upper edge of the turquoise sideways channel. If the BTC price can stabilize above USD 30,612 in a timely manner, the look will be directed again in the direction of yesterday’s daily high.
• With the super trend in the 4-hour chart and the EMA200, there are two relevant resists here.
• Only when Bitcoin dynamically overcomes the area between USD 31,333 and USD 31,563 can a subsequent increase to the next relevant resistance zone between USD 32,205 and USD 32,383 be expected.

Rise towards gap likely

• If the buyer side succeeds in stabilizing Bitcoin above this resist, a trend continuation towards USD 35,000 can be planned for the short term.
• Although there are two further horizontal resistance lines at USD 33,097 and USD 33,714, these are only likely to hinder the rise towards the CME gap between USD 34,470 and USD 35,650 for a short time.
• If the BTC price is able to close this price gap and stabilize above it despite increased profit-taking, the upper edge of the green resistance zone at USD 36,587 will immediately become the focus of investors.

• This means that the medium-term price target of USD 37,452 for the last few weeks of trading is within reach.
• The trailing edge at USD 37,452 remains the trend-setting price level for the next few weeks of trading. Once again, the bulls are planning to realize more profits.
• If Bitcoin can recapture the area around USD 37,500 in perspective, the overriding target price will be activated at USD 39,322.
• At this resistance mark there is a cross resist consisting of a horizontal resistance line and a 61 Fibonacci retracement of the overriding downward movement.
• The maximum upside target remains unchanged in the $39,322 to $40,019 range

Bearish Scenario (BTC)

• The bears also managed to cap the BTC price in the EMA200 area in the last seven trading days. Any breakout attempts by the buy side were parried.
• If Bitcoin slips back below USD 30,000 in the direction of USD 29,256 in a timely manner and undercuts this support dynamically, the bears should try again to sell Bitcoin towards the lower edge of the range at USD 28,607.
• If there is no countermovement, the correction initially extends to the low of USD 28,005.
• The bulls must initiate a reversal at the latest at the lower edge of the orange support zone at USD 27,696. If price stabilization fails, a retest of the area around USD 26,170 becomes increasingly likely.

• This support level continues to mark the last potential reversal level on the way to the yearly low of $25,342.
• If the bears also manage to break through this price level at the end of the day and Bitcoin subsequently falls below the psychologically important USD 25,000 mark, the downward movement will immediately expand in the direction of USD 23,887.
• If the buyer camp remains abstinent here too, Bitcoin should continue to break away to USD 21,892.
• A retest of the old breakout level in the area of ​​USD 20,000 is then increasingly to be planned for.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.93.