After the Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics, heavy fighting broke out in Iraq on Tuesday night. Now the country, shaken by an economic and political crisis, is in danger of slipping into chaos.
Protestants managed to storm the government palace.
Shots echoed through the darkness, grenades exploded. Masked fighters raced through burning streets on pick-ups. At least 30 people died when militiamen and security forces fought bloody battles across Baghdad on Tuesday night. The trigger for the violence was Muqtada al-Sadr’s announcement that he was retiring from politics.
The powerful Shia leader wanted to win a point victory in a power struggle that has been paralyzing Iraq for months. Instead, he unleashed an explosion of violence. Thousands of angry supporters of the preacher stormed the Green Zone, Baghdad’s heavily secured government district, on Monday afternoon.
First they bathed happily in the pool of the Republic Palace. They later engaged in firefights with security forces and fighters from competing factions. Fighting broke out all over Baghdad, with alleged use of even heavy weapons. Riots were also reported from other cities in the country.
The violence was preceded by a power struggle
The explosion of violence was preceded by a long power struggle. Sadr, whose party has been the strongest parliamentary group since the October 2020 elections, wanted to form a majority government together with Kurds and Sunnis for the first time in Iraq’s history. Previously, the country had always been run by coalitions that included all of the country’s political currents in power.
However, Sadr’s attempt to break with this tradition failed. Above all, the Iran-friendly militias led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki opposed him. Those Tehran-sponsored groups that suffered defeat in the elections feared a loss of power.
The result is a government crisis that continues to this day, which made Sadr increasingly impatient. The 48-year-old cleric, who belongs to one of the most influential Iraqi Shiite clergy and has millions of fanatical followers across the country, was previously not known for his reticence.
In the course of the summer he sent his men into the Green Zone for the first time, had them occupy parliament and demanded new elections. At that time an escalation could still be avoided and Sadr withdrew his troops. But since nothing changed in the tricky situation, he decided to act again.
The country has been in a deep crisis for years
Now Iraq – where a bloody civil war raged between Shiites and Sunnis in the noughties and where the Islamic State was later able to conquer large parts of the country – is once again in danger of sliding into darkness. Because the oil-rich country has been in a deep crisis for years. The political system installed by the Americans after their invasion in 2003 and geared towards denominations and ethnic groups guarantees a certain power sharing.
At the same time, however, it increases corruption and enables powerful neighbor Iran to infiltrate Iraq with militias. These militias, which once fought against IS and have since formed a kind of state within a state as so-called popular mobilization units, are also the ones who fought the fiercest battles with the Sadrists.
But the units sponsored by Iran are not only hated by Sadr supporters. Many Iraqi Shiites who don’t support the preacher are also fed up with Tehran’s influence. When thousands of young Iraqis took to the streets against corruption and chaos in the country in autumn 2019, their anger was directed particularly against the pro-Iranian groups.
A populist who likes to switch sides
It is not surprising that Sadr of all people is presenting himself as an anti-Iranian leader. For years, the mullah has been considered a populist who likes to change sides from time to time. In the early 2000s, he first fought the Americans before going into exile in Iran after losing a fight with the then Prime Minister Maliki. In 2019 he tried unsuccessfully to lead the anti-Iranian protest movement.
At first he did not want to take part in the following elections, but then stood up anyway. However, when he failed to form a government, he promptly withdrew his deputies from parliament – and thereby strengthened the pro-Iranian forces, whose representatives could now move up. With his announcement of resignation and the ensuing unrest, “Mullah Atari”, as Sadr is also known because of his fondness for computer games, has now staked everything on one card.
There is still hope in Iraq that a slide into civil war can be avoided. Powers like Saudi Arabia or Turkey have no interest in a new armed conflict. And another escalation in Baghdad, in which they could lose influence, is unlikely to suit the Iranians either.
Sadr is now rowing back
Accordingly, supporters of the Lebanese Hizbullah militia, which is also allied with Tehran, called on social networks that night to avoid a fitna, a split within the Shiite community, at all costs.
The Iraqis themselves also have little desire for new violence. The memories of the devastating civil wars of the past few years are too fresh. In addition, the country is suffering from a never-ending economic crisis and the consequences of climate change, which brings with it sandstorms and temperatures of up to 50 degrees.
Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who appeared completely powerless in the face of the events, imposed a curfew. However, the violence continued. In the meantime, however, the escalation has apparently gone too far even for Sadr himself. The cleric called on his people on Tuesday to withdraw from the Green Zone and stop fighting.
