Is Bitcoin going down in the old season storm?

The old season is gradually shifting the balance of power in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s monthly balance has slipped into the red for the first time in half a year.

$ 2.45 trillion: Total market capitalization has never been higher. In just 90 days, the crypto market value has doubled, beating the Nasdaq workhorse Apple by a good 300 million US dollars. The share of Bitcoin is still clearly the highest at just under a trillion US dollars. But in the last few weeks the distribution has tilted further and further. In the meantime, a high and ever increasing percentage is accounted for by altcoins. This balance of power can be seen in the Bitcoin dominance, which has been on the decline for weeks. At 45 percent, Bitcoin’s share of total market capitalization is a three-year low.

The fact that Bitcoin surrendered over ten percent in just one month is the result of a wild roller coaster ride on the altcoin market. While the crypto reserve currency makes itself comfortable in the midfield between 50,000 and 60,000 US dollars, the all-time highs tumble on the altcoin market. The clock is set by the second largest cryptocurrency, which only set a new top mark of 3,597 US dollars in yesterday’s trading session. At the time of going to press, Ethereum was almost 5 percent away from its high, but at 3,440 US dollars the Ether price posted a respectable weekly plus of 23 percent.

Spurred on by the staking start on Kraken, Cardano (ADA) has also stormed to a new all-time high. Profit-taking has pushed the price down by 8 cents again, but at 1.61 US dollars, the ADA price also recorded an increase of around 21 percent in just seven days. As the third in the federal government, Litecoin (LTC) also set a fresh record high of $ 371.85 today. With a daily plus of 7.2 percent, the “digital silver” with Cardano is one of today’s top performers of the ten largest cryptocurrencies. Polkadot (DOT) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are also working hard again with five and six percent price gains over the weekend.

Only Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP slide by two to four percent into the red on a daily basis. However, given the price gains in recent weeks, the coins are falling softly. At 624 US dollars, Binance Coin is still 4 percent higher compared to the previous week’s level. XRP even posted a plus of 13 percent in the seven-day trend, while Dogecoin kills the bird again with 90 percent.

Bitcoin leaves feathers

The fact that the focus in the crypto market is currently focused on the altcoins has pulled Bitcoin’s 30-day balance down significantly. In a month-on-month comparison, the Bitcoin return is the second worst among the ten largest crypto assets with a minus of 3.2 percent, only Polkadot slipped even further into the red with 6 percent. By comparison, while Bitcoin market capitalization has fallen by $ 40 billion in the last 30 days, Dogecoin market capitalization has increased by $ 70 billion.

The ongoing casino mentality is currently turning every useless Shitcoin into gold. Experience has shown that the old season hangs by a thread. As quickly as the altcoin market inflates, it can collapse again just as quickly. Extremely high volatility is part of day-to-day business and requires nerves like steel cables. How sustainable the growth of some cryptocurrencies is, however, will only become apparent when cash out is carried out across the board.

Miners hoarding

Bitcoin will benefit from the big dump in the first place. As soon as the old season reaches its zenith and instead of gambling is again invested in the long term, a lot of capital is likely to be shifted into the largest crypto currency.

In anticipation of the “Big Bang”, the miners are already guarding their reserves. The outflow, i.e. the BTC transactions originating from miners, has fallen back to pre-rally level. Up until a month ago, miners were constantly throwing large amounts of Bitcoin onto the market, creating an excess supply. The throttling shifts the balance again. If the demand on the crypto market tips back in the direction of Bitcoin, the next section of the rally could quickly heat up.

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is also sticking to his bullish outlook for 2021. Compared to the performance of the previous post-halving years, Bitcoin still has great growth potential in the coming months.

The 15x price increase in 2017 was roughly a third of the 2013 increase. A similar fraction of the 2017 increase would mean a price of just over $ 100,000 in 2021, and apart from Bitcoin’s progressive adoption, the terms are now not much different.

Mike McGlone, Crypto Outlook

In the latest Bitcoin analysis, BTC-ECHO analyst Stefan Lübeck has summarized for you how realistic an increase to the magical USD 100,000 threshold is, and which hurdles the largest crypto currency has to overcome.