Actually, global economic data is currently encouraging. However, the continuing concern about a further increase in the number of corona cases is clouding the mood in the financial centers. Is there a new shutdown? Investors are not sure.
The current battle on the stock exchanges between business pessimists and optimists is unlikely to be over in the new week. Rather, according to experts, the risk of a setback grows with the recent recovery in prices. At the close on Friday, the Dax was down 0.64 percent at 12,528.18 points. For the stock market barometer, however, this results in a solid weekly profit of around 3.6 percent.
The equity markets were now split into the second half of the year, said market strategist Robert Halver from Baader Bank. "On the one hand, the global leading indicators even signal V-shaped economic recovery with the help of monetary and fiscal policy. On the other hand, the economic seeds must actually sprout, especially since increasing corona infection numbers around the world are fueling concerns about renewed shutdowns." Now the question arises as to which investor camp will ultimately gain the upper hand.
Elmar Völker from the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg currently sees the markets in a kind of floating state between hope and fear. The recent development on the stock exchanges only too clearly reflects the conflict between investors: The steep rally due to the corona crash from March to early June brought the Dax, with an increase of almost 24 percent, the highest growth in the second quarter in many years.
A very turbulent first half of the year came to an extremely conciliatory end due to the pandemic. Recently, however, the quotes had come back due to growing doubts about the rapid economic recovery, before strong US labor market data caused a price explosion in the Dax last Thursday and pushed the leading German index above the 12,600 point mark.
Longing for a "Corona break"
This brings the doubters back on the plan: "The optimism on the stock markets increases with the rising prices – but so does our skepticism," says the current Fuchs letter. The authors of the stock market letter still expect a second wave of sales on the markets and consider it very unlikely that this could not happen. Currently, however, institutional investors are the main drivers of the course. In the corona panic, rules to prevent large price fluctuations would often have put a stop to this and would not have allowed investments, but now they took vigorous action.
The upcoming summer vacation combined with the longing for a "corona break" and the – still – continued easing, according to analyst Claudia Windt from Landesbank Helaba, should at least contribute to some relaxation for investors in the coming weeks. "After all, the economic data from the past week was surprisingly positive." This applies equally to Germany and the USA, where job creation is picking up speed again after the massive Corona slump and the unemployment rate fell in June for the second month in a row.
However, according to Windt, the question of the sustainability of such an economic upturn has to be answered with a few question marks: Not only the rapidly increasing number of new infections is cause for concern, but also the smoldering trade conflict between the United States and China.
According to chief economist Ulrich Kater from Dekabank, the brightening of the mood in the economy is likely to continue in the coming week. The calendar with macro data is, however, rather sparsely populated, which is why little impetus can be expected from the market. It also remains calm on the corporate side: While the time of the general meetings continues, the Südzucker subsidiary Cropenergies presents detailed quarterly figures on Wednesday. A day later on Thursday, the mother opens her books.
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