On Falkenstrasse, three experts debated how the West should respond to China’s expansive ambitions.
Bernhard Bartsch, Daniel Fritzsche, Angela Stanzel and Patrick Zoll discussed on the podium (from left).
While a bloody war has been raging in Ukraine for eight months, it is sometimes almost forgotten that a major conflict is also looming in another region of the world: In the Indo-Pacific, China is making its claims ever clearer, while the West is struggling for answers and strategies to meet these ambitions encounter. On Monday evening, the NZZ podium entitled “Development of three major powers: the Indo-Pacific as a new area of tension” provided insights into the strategic competition between China, the USA and up-and-coming India.
Patrick Zoll provided a basis for discussion in his input presentation. Zoll, an expert on the region and NZZ correspondent for geopolitics in Taiwan, made it clear what great economic, strategic and political importance the Indo-Pacific has. The region is not only home to shipping routes and internet cables, which are essential to the global economy, but also to six nuclear powers, some of which have divergent geopolitical interests. China, India and the US all fear for their spheres of influence. With the question «Where is all this leading to?» Zoll launched the debate, chaired by Daniel Fritzsche, head of the Zurich department of the NZZ.
“It’s getting uncomfortable”
Right from the start, the discussion revolved around the red elephant in the room: China. “It’s getting uncomfortable for all of us. China is ready to seek conflict,” said Bernhard Bartsch from the renowned Mercator Institute for China Studies. With regard to a feared invasion of Taiwan, Bartsch, who has lived in China himself for more than 20 years, pointed out that a gray area conflict has long been active in the region. “China is gradually moving the red lines while other countries ramp up deterrence,” he said.
Nevertheless, Angela Stanzel does not assume that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent in the next few months. The Asia scientist from the German Science and Politics Foundation explained: “Xi Jinping is currently speculating on forcing reunification with Taiwan without an invasion – through massive cyber attacks, undermining democracy, economic pressure and international isolation.” Therefore, the assistance and support of the West are all the more important to protect Taiwan from isolation.
The panellists agreed that the current Western unity on Ukraine and sanctions should act as a deterrent to China. The country is also struggling with major domestic political and economic problems that are troubling Chinese ruler Xi. Nevertheless, one can never know how China will react to threats, said Patrick Zoll: “In all analyzes we still have a poor understanding of how such a regime really ticks at its core.” Unfortunately, the wish for a crystal ball could not be fulfilled by the participants.
The sleeping superpower India
There was also consensus that the Chinese threatening gestures in the West must be resolutely opposed – also in Europe. Although the military importance of the old continent is low, China must realize that in the event of escalation it will opt for the western camp, said Bernhard Bartsch. Symbolic actions are also important.
In addition to the red elephant, the view of India was almost forgotten. The country is a “sleeping superpower” that deliberately remains ambivalent and does not take sides, said Angela Stanzel. It also gets in its own way. Bartsch added that India is still suffering from its small economic size and is still a long way from catching up with China.
In the final question and answer session, numerous raised hands showed how great the interest in the Indo-Pacific is. One thing is certain: it is worth watching this region closely.