Is there a new, unknown weapon against Russia?

On Tuesday afternoon, thick clouds of smoke suddenly rose in the blue sky of the Yevpatoria holiday region on the Russian-controlled Crimean peninsula, causing panicked tourists to flee. At least four large explosions shook the Saki Air Force Base, located on the edge of bathing beaches, according to cell phone videos by eyewitnesses. Two of these detonations were so violent that they triggered fireballs visible from afar and huge mushroom clouds.

As always in such cases, the Russian authorities sowed more confusion with their statements than they could offer a plausible explanation. The Ministry of Defense in Moscow spoke of the explosion of Luftwaffe ammunition, presumably as a result of violating fire safety regulations. There were no casualties or damage to the aircraft stationed at the base. This account was quickly refuted, as local authorities reported one dead and nine injured. During the evening, more and more videos circulated on social networks, undermining the official propaganda. The damages are obviously massive, which is not surprising in view of the powerful explosions.

At least one fighter jet destroyed

A pro-Russian information platform showed pictures of a burned-out Su-24 bomber. It can be assumed that other machines were damaged, because the jets are usually lined up closely on this basis. The Ukrainian military even spoke of nine destroyed planes on Wednesday. Saki is the base of a naval aviation regiment of the Black Sea Fleet and, according to satellite images, is also home to more than 20 Su-30 and Su-33 fighter jets. From here, Russia regularly launches airstrikes on targets in southern Ukraine.

Even if the damage picture is incomplete, important insights can already be drawn. The Russian thesis of an accident seems implausible, if only because of the obvious effort to downplay the catastrophe. The statement is reminiscent of the one after the sinking of the guided missile cruiser “Moskva” in April, when Moscow wanted to talk away the spectacular Ukrainian success as a result of improper handling of explosives on board.

Above all, however, one of the eyewitness videos clearly speaks against the theory of the accident. Two of the explosions occurred in the same second, at two locations several hundred meters apart. This indicates a well-planned, targeted action from the outside.

The Ukrainian military leadership has not claimed responsibility for the alleged attack, which is not unusual in such cases. She resorted to irony by publishing the image of a column of smoke over the Black Sea beach, accompanied by a sarcastic comment addressed to the Russian audience: “The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying forces on the territory of the Ukrainian Crimea does not cope with the high tourist season.”

Even under the plausible assumption that Ukraine is behind the inferno, the incident is puzzling. It is currently completely unclear by what means the explosions were caused. Saki is located around 200 kilometers behind the Ukrainian-Russian front in the province of Kherson. As far as we know today, Ukraine does not have any weapon systems with such a range.

The much-vaunted Himars multiple rocket launchers from the USA come to 80 kilometers, all other artillery systems a lot less. The Tochka-U ballistic missiles, of which small remnants may remain in Ukraine’s arsenal, have a range of just 120 kilometers.

Unconfirmed information about commando action

Therefore, the experts are left with only hypotheses: did Ukrainian saboteurs get to the base and detonate explosive devices? That would be a pretty daring assumption. the “Washington Post” However, he claims to have learned from security circles in Kyiv that it was a commando operation by Ukrainian special forces. That would be unprecedented in this form and cannot be verified.

There are also speculations about the use of kamikaze drones. In principle, this is conceivable, because Ukraine carried out an attack in this way back in June. The target at the time was an oil refinery in the Russian province of Rostov-on-Don. However, one argument against this scenario is that no drones were apparently seen near Saki, despite the ubiquitous amateur filmmakers documenting what was happening with their smartphones.

Theoretically, there is a possibility that the US secretly supplied Ukraine with longer-range precision ammunition. In Washington, however, this was explicitly ruled out; According to the American statement, the Himars rocket launchers are only to be given limited-range ammunition in order to prevent Ukraine from using American weapons for attacks on Russian territory.

As an explanation, there is also the assumption that Ukraine itself or with foreign help has developed a new type of weapon, most likely a ballistic missile with a longer range. This is also indicated by unofficial information from the security apparatus in Kyiv. However, this question remains unanswered.

Setback for the Kremlin

It seems certain that the alleged attack is highly symbolic and of considerable military importance. Crimea is the main staging area for Russia to bring troops into the increasingly contested Kherson province. The Air Force has an important role to play in these operations and must now face a new threat.

Above all, however, the thick clouds of smoke over the beaches on the Black Sea demonstrate that Crimea, which was illegally annexed in 2014, has become a target in this war. President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed this week with renewed vehemence that Ukraine wants to win back this jewel of the Black Sea region.