Is Ukraine missing a key target?
US intelligence agencies do not believe Melitopol was taken
08/18/2023, 09:28 am
With its counter-offensive, Ukraine wants to push back the Russian troops, above all to block their land route to Crimea. US secret services are skeptical that this will succeed. Rather, they expect the offensive to come to a standstill in front of Melitopol.
According to a media report, the US secret services assume that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will not reach the important south-eastern city of Melitopol. The reported the Washington Post, citing people familiar with the matter. Should this assessment prove to be correct, Ukraine would miss one of its main goals of the counteroffensive: cutting the Russian land bridge to Crimea before the end of this year.
According to the intelligence service forecast, the “gloomy assessment” rests on Russia’s brutal skill in defending occupied territories with a phalanx of minefields and trenches. That would lead to blame in Kiev and western capitals over why a counteroffensive that has poured billions of dollars worth of Western arms and military equipment into it has failed to achieve its goals.
The Ukrainian troops are currently on this front section near Robotyne and are trying to advance from here to Melitopol, about 80 kilometers away. According to the US intelligence service forecast, however, they will stop in front of the city. The assessment is based on statements by US, Western and Ukrainian government officials.
Two days after the start of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Melitopol was the first major city that the attackers – coming from the annexed Crimea – were able to take. The city is considered the gateway to Crimea. Major highways and a railway line allow Russia to transport troops, equipment and other goods to and from Crimea. A liberation of the city by Ukrainian troops would therefore be crucial to cutting off Russian supply routes to the peninsula.
Russia is aware of the strategically important location of the city. In order to protect them from attacks, minefields, anti-tank obstacles and positions were set up, especially in the north.