Israel is planning an offensive – Will Rafah, Hamas’ last bastion, soon fall? -News

Israel is preparing an offensive on Rafah in the south of the Gaza Strip. With the imminent destruction of Hamas, victory is within reach, said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Could Hamas actually be eliminated with an attack on Rafah? Middle East expert Susanne Brunner classifies.

Susanne Brunner

Head of foreign editorial department


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Susanne Brunner worked for SRF as a correspondent in the Middle East between 2018 and 2022. She grew up in Canada, Scotland, Germany and Switzerland. She studied journalism in Ottawa. At Radio SRF she was first an editor and presenter at Radio SRF 3. Then she went to San Francisco as a correspondent and, after her return, was a correspondent in French-speaking Switzerland. She also moderated the “Tagestalk” on Radio SRF 1. Susanne Brunner also gained television experience at “10vor10”. Since September 2022 she has been head of the foreign editorial team at Radio SRF.

Why is Rafah so important in the Middle East conflict?

The only border crossing with Egypt is in Rafah. There are always speculations that Hamas is supplied with weapons and ammunition through the underground tunnels in the south of the Gaza Strip. Israel now suspects Hamas’ military headquarters are in the tunnels under Rafah. Therefore, the Israeli army wants to start the ground offensive there. Israel wants to wipe out Hamas – and use all means to prevent a massacre like the one on October 7, 2023 from happening again.

Is the city the last bastion of Hamas?

So far, 18 of 24 Hamas battalions have been destroyed, Netanyahu said at the end of January. Four Hamas battalions are stationed in Rafah. The American secret services doubt these figures, but no one knows for sure. Some of the Hamas leadership are likely to be in Rafah, although no one can say with complete certainty whether it is really the last Hamas bastion, as Netanyahu emphasizes.

Many dead and two hostages freed in attacks on Rafah


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Even though Israel has not yet begun its ground offensive in Rafah, the region was already attacked from the air on Monday night. According to Palestinian sources, at least 67 people were killed and dozens injured in Shabura in the southern Gaza Strip. The information cannot be independently verified.

Israel also rescued two hostages in the wake of the attacks on Rafah. The two abductees, aged 60 and 70, were in good health, the Israeli military said. From Prime Minister Netanyahu’s point of view, the number of hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip justifies Israel’s military action. When asked how many hostages were still alive, Netanyahu told ABC News: “I think enough to justify our efforts.”

According to the Israeli army, there are currently 134 people in the hands of Hamas, but around 30 of them are no longer alive. (awp/reu)

Can Hamas be destroyed by attacking Rafah?

Israel underestimated Hamas’s resilience. The Wall Street Journal recently reported, citing US intelligence agencies, that the Israeli army had killed 20 to 30 percent of Hamas fighters. Dismantling a terrorist organization simply by killing individual fighters is practically impossible. Israel may succeed in destroying most of the Hamas leadership and its military equipment in the Gaza Strip. But ideally, you cannot simply wipe out a terrorist organization. Part of the Hamas leadership is based in Qatar, and new fighters are constantly being recruited and armed. This development can hardly be stopped.

Attacks on Rafah

What does Israel’s offensive mean for the people of Rafah?

Netanyahu is having preparations made for the evacuation of civilians. But a military offensive in the city on the border with Egypt is problematic. Before the war, around 300,000 people lived in Rafah – today there are over 1.3 million. Most of them fled from other parts of the Gaza Strip. They live in cruel conditions. There is hardly any access to drinking water, food and emergency aid. The people are weakened, most of them women, children or the elderly. If Israel actually launches its ground offensive, even more suffering and death can be expected in the Gaza Strip. The Arab states and the USA, for example, are warning about this.

Where could people escape to?

It is unclear where the million-plus people will go. Israel’s leadership has brought the north of the Gaza Strip into play. That would mean that people would have to return to where they came from. In a region where there are hardly any intact buildings and humanitarian aid. Another option would be Egypt. However, if Egypt opens its borders, the country could be accused of aiding Israel’s destruction of the Palestinian state. The example of Lebanon shows that displaced Palestinians generally no longer want to return to the Gaza Strip. That would be the end of the two-state solution that the West wants. It’s a dramatic and tricky situation.

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