The verdict against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has alarmed the Turkish opposition. It seems to confirm their fears: The Erdogan government will conduct the 2023 election campaign with unfair means.
Supporters of Ekrem Imamoglu are demonstrating in Istanbul against what they see as the politically motivated verdict against the mayor.
A day after the verdict against Ekrem Imamoglu, tens of thousands came to Istanbul’s city hall to show their solidarity with their mayor. On Thursday, the crowd crowded far across the main street, young and old singing protest songs, waving Turkey flags, dancing and singing. When Imamoglu entered the square in the afternoon, the politician from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) was being accompanied by the leaders of the opposition alliance, including two former companions of Erdogan.
The audience goes wild and shouts “President Imamoglu” as he enters the stage. He replies in a hoarse voice: “The leaders of six parties are here today to depose those up there!” Rarely has the Turkish opposition been so united. She is not prepared to accept the judgment of the Istanbul court, which sentenced Imamoglu to more than two years in prison the day before. The accusation: “insulting the electoral authority” because he called them “idiots” in 2019.
At the time, Imamoglu had won the Istanbul local elections by a razor-thin margin; however, under pressure from Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, it was canceled and repeated. The second time, the CHP candidate won by a wide margin and thus became the opposition’s beacon of hope. Many saw him as Turkey’s next president. Erdogan had achieved the opposite of his goal with his maneuver.
The verdict could strengthen Imamoglu’s reputation
Erdogan should have known better: In 1998, Erdogan himself was sentenced to ten months in prison for a poem he had recited and given a lifelong ban on politics. Whole sections of the population declared their solidarity with him at the time; he advanced from victim to hero. Now many in Turkey are wondering whether things will be similar after the judgment against Imamoglu. Newspapers loyal to the government such as “Sabah” even warn that Imamoglu could now also “act as a victim”.
Hardly anyone in the country doubts that the process was politically motivated. “A huge injustice!” complained a middle-aged passer-by in the Osmanbey business district who wanted to remain anonymous. “I am so angry!” A Kurdish pensioner, on the other hand, says: “Imamoglu’s CHP party is to blame. In recent years, she has hardly protested against the mass arrests of Kurdish politicians and the ousting of Kurdish mayors in the south-east. Now they’re paying the price.” Still, the retiree voted for Imamoglu three years ago and would do it again.
Imamoglu was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison, but under current Turkish law, sentences under three years do not have to be served. However, he is threatened with a political ban if the verdict becomes final. His lawyers have announced that they will appeal – such proceedings in Turkey usually last at least a year. With the appropriate political will from the very top, things could go faster.
A political ban would have consequences beyond the elections
If the verdict were to become final before the presidential elections in June 2023, Imamoglu would not be able to run. He is one of the opposition alliance’s most promising candidates in the race for the presidency. The local politician is eligible for secular as well as religious citizens, for nationalists as well as for Kurds. In recent polls, he is ahead of Erdogan. However, it is unclear whether his party would actually nominate him as a candidate.
Should the verdict against Imamoglu become final, this would not only have consequences for the elections. There would also be a change of power in Istanbul. Since Erdogan’s AKP holds the majority in the city council, she could determine Imamoglu’s successor. That is the real aim of the verdict, believes Imamoglu’s party colleague Gürsel Tekin: “Istanbul is the country’s economic engine. Before Imamoglu, AKP politicians personally enriched themselves immensely here.” Tekin believes that with the removal of Imamoglu, the AKP wants to return to its sinecure.
The Erdogan government is taking a high political risk to do this. Her “great fear” of an election defeat is behind the verdict, says Imamoglu’s ally Meral Aksener. Turkey is currently groaning under inflation of officially 85 percent compared to the previous year; in fact, it is likely to be much higher. The boom years under Erdogan are over, poverty and corruption are omnipresent, freedom of expression has collapsed, many people want to emigrate.
For many Turks, the verdict against Imamoglu is just proof that Erdogan will use every dishonest means to weaken the opposition before the elections. The election campaign is on, it’s going to be tough. Imamoglu will undoubtedly play a major role in this.