LJune 9 will forever remain a historic evening. For the first time in French political life, the results of an intermediate vote led to a dissolution of the National Assembly. On the morning of the European election, the distribution of governmental power was not an issue on the agenda; the French people and the citizens of the Union were “only” convened to designate their representation in the European Parliament. Barely an hour after the closing of the polling stations, while the counting operations had not yet been completed, the solemn announcement of a dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron sounded like a clap of thunder. During the early legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, the prime minister’s chair will officially be at stake.
If there is a regularity in the history of European elections in France, it is the decline of the government majority: since 1979, all the lists supported by the power in place have obtained worse results in the European elections than in the last national election of reference. From this point of view, the list led by Valérie Hayer did not experience an extraordinary destiny. With 14.6% of the vote, she was indeed at a level lower than Emmanuel Macron’s 27.8% during the first round of the 2022 presidential election. The sheer scale of this decline is not exceptional: Similar losses had affected the Socialist Party lists in 2014 compared to François Hollande’s score in 2012.
In the history of European elections, setbacks in the government majority have not always led to electoral defeat: on four occasions in 1979, 1994, 1999 and 2009, the list of government power came out on top. And these setbacks have never had direct consequences on the power in place, including in the event of severe losses: no prime minister has been removed from office following a defeat in European elections. In fact, it was the impressive surge of the list led by Jordan Bardella to 31.4% of the votes cast, more than double the score of the Hayer list, which led the President of the Republic to react by pronouncing the dissolution of the Assembly.
A strategic failure
The defeat of the Hayer list has little to do with the strictly European issues of the election: in most electorates, and particularly in the Bardella electorate, the weight of national issues was decisive in the vote. In the eyes of voters, the European vote does not involve any real power issues, which allows the full expressive dimension of the vote to be released. Gold, the latest IFOP popularity barometer, published in the second half of May, indicated that only 31% of those questioned were satisfied with the action of the President of the Republic. This is the first lesson of this European election: a powerful dynamic of sanction voting against Emmanuel Macron has been expressed.
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