Tribune. Despite his calls for vigilance, Prime Minister Jean Castex gave the feeling, during his press conference on April 22, that we had entered a new era. “The peak of the third wave seems behind us”, did he declare. The end of the tunnel would be in sight, with a programmed end of the epidemic and a return to normal life in the summer.
However, after only three weeks of more or less reinforced braking measures, the level of viral circulation remains very high in France. Around 30,000 new positive cases per day, while we test less, especially in the lowest age groups. France is today one of the countries with the highest incidence: almost twice as many new daily cases reported to the population than Italy and Germany and thirteen times as many as the United Kingdom. If the vaccination progresses, the intensive care units are always full and the new variants, affecting more younger subjects, threaten the vaccine efficacy.
The development would be more favorable in the most affected regions (Ile-de-France, Hauts-de-France and Alpes-Maritimes). The closure of schools during the spring break was the only significant additional measure to curb the epidemic. What effect will it have lifting, when the virus is circulating at a much higher level than among our neighbors when they began to deconfin?
Systematic screening
The Prime Minister and the Minister of National Education, Jean-Michel Blanquer, have given pledges to secure schools: reinforced protocol and strong increase in tests in establishments. In the absence of a robust prevention strategy – which would require clear epidemiological objectives and reliable warning indicators – there is a major risk that the epidemic will prosper thanks to this reopening, in the form of a high plateau, a slow decline or, possibly, a new epidemic recovery before the summer.
The announcements on screening remain below the recommendations of the Scientific Council in its opinion of April 19, 2021 on self-tests. Modeling showed that regular screenings in schools reduce the intensity of the epidemic when uptake and frequency of testing increases.
Most of our neighbors have established robust strategies for monitoring and reactive alerting: self-tests are used for pupils, from primary school, twice a week in Germany, the United Kingdom and Austria. In addition, to be effective, these tests must be systematic, and therefore supported by a strong incentive campaign among families.
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