Another session of decline on the Paris Stock Exchange, the operators being very cautious two days before the publication of crucial figures concerning inflation in the United States and which moreover caused a remarkable exit, Tuesday, of Janet Yellen, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve. ” Powell and I could have used a better term than transient », « expect inflation to remain high », « there is no doubt that we have enormous inflationary pressures “said the current Treasury Secretary to the Senate Finance Committee, at a time when consumer prices are prancing to 40-year highs.
At midday, the Bedroom 40 lost 0.7%, to 6,454.69 points, in a volume, once again low, of less than 700 million euros. In New York, futures contracts on Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite are also down, from 0.3% to 0.5%.
At 8.3% over one year in April, inflation has certainly fallen slightly in the United States compared to 8.5% in March, but not as much as the consensus had hoped (8.1%). The statistics will be published on Friday at 2:30 p.m. Analysts are counting on a stabilization at 8.3% of the increase in prices over one year for May despite an increase of 0.5% over one month. Excluding food and energy, that is to say excluding volatile elements, a decline to 5.9% over one year is nevertheless expected, after 6.2% in April. This surge in prices undermines the purchasing power of consumers and the margins of companies. It pushes, in turn, the central banks to accelerate their interest rate hikes, detrimental to any progress in the equity markets. Bond yields remain, in this context, under tension, that of the 10-year US bond remaining above the 3% threshold on Wednesday.
The OECD revises its forecasts downwards
In the meantime, operators scrutinized this morning the new forecasts of the OECD at the end of the morning. Unsurprisingly, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has revised them downwards. It now forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3% this year, compared to 4.5% in December, then 2.8% in 2023, compared to 3.2% previously. Inflation is expected to peak at 8.5% before falling back to 6% in 2023, from 5% and a return to 3% next year. GDP growth was revised to 0.6% in the first quarter in the euro zone, above the 0.3% expected. We expect this afternoon the wholesale trade figures for April in the United States and the weekly oil inventories from the US Department of Energy.
Before the American inflation, the operators will follow very closely, Thursday, the decision of monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and especially the press conference of its president Christine Lagarde, who should prepare the ground for a first increase in key rates in the euro zone, expected for this month of July. ” The only real question ahead of this week’s meeting is not whether or not the Governing Council will raise interest rates in July, but by how much.summarizes the research firm Ebury, some members seem to be in favor of more aggressive measures [que 25 points de base], notably Knot and Holzmann. Markets will want to know if this is the view of a small portion of board members or one shared by many. »
Credit Suisse in loss
On the securities side, French banks are holding up well against the fall of more than 5% in Swiss credit in Zurich, which is now forecasting losses for the second quarter, due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine and interest rate hikes, which will weigh on the investment banking division, while the trading branch has benefited of the increase in volatility. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Agricultural credit lose 0.1% to 0.7%.
Exane BNP Paribas noted Saffron (+1.46%) at “outperformance”, against “neutral” previously, with a target price of 134 euros. The automobile is also surrounded, with increases of 4% in Renault and 0.9% of Stellantis. The 0.8% increase in TotalEnergies provides greater support.
Excluding CAC 40, Korian loses more than 9%. Thirty complaints against nursing homes managed by the private group, in particular for manslaughter and endangering the lives of others, were filed by several families before a dozen prosecutors, according to The Parisian. Indirectly, Orpea give up 4%.