Rising import costs are inflicting increasing pain on Japanese households and domestically-focused businesses, challenging the central bank’s position that a weak yen is good for the economy as a whole.
Imports by value likely jumped 43.6% in May from a year earlier, marking the largest single-month rise since November and accelerating from April’s 28.2% increase, according to the survey of 17 economists.
“Rising oil prices and a falling yen have boosted imports,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at the Central Bank’s Shinkin Research Institute.
Prices of yen-based imported goods rose a record 43.3% year-on-year in May, Bank of Japan data showed on Friday.
The survey showed that exports probably rose 16.4% in May, slightly faster than the 12.5% rise recorded in April.
But the larger rise in imports is expected to widen the May trade deficit to 2,022 trillion yen ($15.08 billion), approaching the largest one-month gap in eight years recorded in January.
“The main culprit for the widening trade gap would rather be exports, which could have grown faster,” Tsunoda said, adding that shipments of cars and other manufactured goods likely suffered from bottlenecks. supply due to China’s COVID-19 lockdowns.
The survey also found that orders for basic machinery, a leading indicator of capital spending, are expected to fall 1.5% month-on-month in April after rising 7.1% in March.
The government will release trade figures 8:50 a.m. June 16 (2350 GMT, June 15) and machinery orders data 8:50 a.m. June 15 (2350 GMT, June 14).
($1 = 134.0800 yen)