Re-elected on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron decided to give himself time to choose his future Prime Minister and refine his political and governmental system. The name is not expected to be known until May 8. An equation with multiple unknowns.
“A five-legged sheep! This is the profile of the future Prime Minister that Emmanuel Macron is looking for. The appointment of Jean Castex’s successor will be the first political act of the re-elected president. A key decision to launch the second part of the spring electoral sequence. A campaign that will end on June 19 with the second round of legislative elections. In 2017 and then in 2020, the Head of State surprised each time by choosing men on the right who had not voted for him in the first presidential election: first Edouard Philippe, LR mayor of Le Havre and lieutenant d ‘Alain Juppe; then Jean Castex, senior civil servant, LR mayor of Prades and former collaborator of Nicolas Sarkozy. The rest is known: the first tandem completed its half-fig half-grape story while the honeymoon of the second amazed all of Macronie.
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The idea of bringing Jean Castex back to the legislative elections did touch the minds of those close to the president, but they quickly understood that the French would not be satisfied with “all that for that”. According to an Ifop survey for Paris Match, 71% of them are against his renewal at Matignon. Since Monday, Emmanuel Macron has been refining his cast: new head of government, new team of ministers, new party, new macronist candidates for the legislative elections in addition to the outgoing who will mostly be reinvested.
Terminal, “a little green, a little left” vs Denormandie “pure and hard macronist”
So who could this “rare pearl” be? How to identify this “feminine Castex” in the words of Christophe Castaner? Emmanuel Macron has repeated several times that he wanted to appoint a woman to Matignon. Only François Mitterrand had this audacity before him with Edith Cresson, ephemeral head of government (10 months and 18 days between May 1991 and April 1992). In 2017, he had already mentioned this preference before appointing two men. Surrounded mostly by men, the president is looking for a woman. The name of Elisabeth Borne (61) current Minister of Labor is mentioned regularly. “She is a little green, a little left, experienced and the president adores her”, lists a pillar of the majority. The former chief of staff of Ségolène Royal has the support of Alexis Kohler, secretary general of the Elysée and strong man of Macronie. Her weak point: she is not very political (never elected but she will run in a constituency in Calvados). His rather techno profile resembles the other favorite: Julien Denormandie (41), current Minister of Agriculture and darling of the president, of whom he was deputy chief of staff at Bercy. “A pure and hard macronist”, according to a minister, also never elected and a little erased in the media.
Obviously with these two rather dull profiles, quite techno and very tone on tone with the president, Emmanuel Macron would break with the risk-taking of 2017. “In 2022, we must not play, we must ensure”, estimates this deputy plan, the gaze turned towards the legislative elections which will be more complicated with the candidates LFI and RN in ambush. No question of relying on a left-wing mayor (those of Montpellier and Nancy are sometimes cited) to lead this decisive electoral battle. “We cannot unbalance our political ecosystem otherwise we will sow discord in the majority which leans more to the right with Horizons”, analyzes a minister.
Will Emmanuel Macron rely on a more political personality like Richard Ferrand, the first of his grognards or Frenchman Bayrou, his MoDem ally? It would be a surprise but in line with its promise of a different governance. There would also be logic in appointing a “political boss” to “hold” a heterogeneous majority that could range from Sarkozyists to environmentalists… One thing is certain, Emmanuel Macron has accustomed us to surprise. By procrastinating (he intends to take his time until May 8), the Head of State also hopes to create momentum to initiate the second campaign. Re-elected in 2002, Jacques Chirac appointed Jean-Pierre Raffarin the day after his victory. In 1988, François Mitterrand had prepared the ground during his short campaign and called Michel Rocard to Matignon. In both cases, two choices which had enabled the re-elected presidents to secure majorities, very large for the Gaullist, very short for the Socialist. It remains for Emmanuel Macron to find his “five-legged sheep” capable of causing a “wow effect”.