Johnson’s Tories fiasco in two by-elections

The British Conservatives have suffered crushing defeats in two by-elections in the post-industrial north and in their homelands of south-west England. Party leader Oliver Dowden is resigning, but the fiasco is another blow to Boris Johnson’s authority.

Tory leader Oliver Dowden (left) is taking the consequences of the electoral defeat, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to continue.

Jon Super/AP

When Boris Johnson celebrated his big election victory in late 2019, he won seats in former Labor strongholds in England’s post-industrial north and defended traditional Tory constituencies in the south. But when the results of two important by-elections in the lower house on Thursday were announced on Friday morning, it became clear that both pillars in Johnson’s 2019 electoral coalition had faltered significantly.

Labor returns in the North

In the northern constituency of Wakefield, near Leeds, the Labor opposition has managed to win back the seat lost to the Tories in 2019. The Labor candidate Simon Lightwood was able to unite almost 48 percent of the vote, the Conservative opponent came to 30 percent.

Compared to the last general election, 12.7 percent of voters switched sides, defecting from the Conservatives to Labour. This result, while not great for Labor, gives the party hope of regaining ground in their former northern strongholds in the next general election.

Liberal Democrats win in Southwest

More surprising than the defeat at Wakefield is the fiasco experienced by the Tories in the rural constituency of Tiverton and Honiton in south-west England. The Liberal Democrat Richard Foord received almost 53 percent of the vote. In 2019, the Tories had a lead of 24,000 votes in their traditional stronghold. Now Foord won with a gap of more than 6000 votes to the conservative opponent.

That amounts to one of the greatest political pendulum swings in history, and means the Tories have lost a constituency they have safely had for over a hundred years. Also, a bad omen for the Conservatives is that many voters apparently voted tactically to slap the Tories in the face. Labor received just 3.7 per cent of the vote, showing that many Social Democrat voters backed the Liberal Democrat candidate they felt would have the best chance of winning the election.

Johnson wants to continue

Caution should always be exercised when interpreting by-elections. Nevertheless, the double fiasco shows that the conservative parliamentary majority is at risk in the next general election. Party leader Oliver Dowden took the consequences early on Friday morning and resigned on the grounds that someone should take the consequences for the defeat.

Boris Johnson, on the other hand, emphasized that he wanted to listen to voters, but “move on”. The prime minister, who is currently in Rwanda at the meeting of the heads of government of the Commonwealth countries, justified the defeat with the rising cost of living. However, the affair surrounding the lockdown parties on Downing Street also severely damaged the credibility of the Tories.

Johnson survived an internal party no-confidence vote in early June, but over 40 percent of the faction opposed him. The two electoral defeats are another blow to his authority. Both candidates who won on Thursday said the election results showed that the British public had lost confidence in Johnson.

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