It would be a signal of political deterrence for Russia: Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will probably become the EU’s new foreign policy chief. For Kallas, the move to Brussels would be part of a family tradition.
Nothing has been decided yet. But it looks very likely that Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will become the new European Union’s foreign policy chief. The personnel table currently being discussed meets regional and political requirements: German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen will remain head of the European Commission. Former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, a Social Democrat, will become President of the European Council – a position currently held by Belgian Charles Michel. And Kaja Kallas will become foreign policy chief. Her Reform Party is part of the third largest group in the European Parliament, the Liberals.
But Kallas also fulfils another requirement. Estonia may have fewer inhabitants than Munich. But the word of the Estonian head of government carries weight in the EU. “Kaja Kallas is valued by many because she belongs to a younger generation of politicians who are unpretentious, pragmatic and clear,” says Eastern Europe expert Nico Lange to ntv.de. “Many Central Eastern Europeans and Northern Europeans feel represented in their positions,” says the senior fellow at the Munich Security Conference.
For the past five years, the Spanish Social Democrat Josep Borrell has been the EU’s foreign policy chief; Eastern Europe was not represented in the three top positions in the European Union. Expert Lange hopes that Kallas will bring new momentum if she gets the job: “We definitely need more politicians in their 40s in top positions and fewer men over 60.” Borrell was “unpopular with many” as foreign policy chief “because he delivered little, but often acted arrogantly,” said Lange. “With Kallas in this position, the EU would get a good upgrade.”
She lost points at home
In fact, there are a number of reasons in Kallas’ favor – not just her age and the European proportional system. She was an MEP for four years, from 2014 to 2018, and knows how Brussels works from the perspective of the parliament. Her father was the first Estonian EU Commissioner in Brussels. Above all, Kallas’ appointment would be a clear signal to Russia.
Like no other person at the head of a NATO and EU state, she is vehemently advocating support for Ukraine so that the country can defend itself against the Russian attack. “The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has now lasted four years,” Kallas said recently at the Ukraine summit in Switzerland. “For most of that time, the world has ignored it. Some hoped then and hope now that territorial concessions to the aggressor will bring peace. But they will not.” Russia, Kallas stressed, is a colonial power, even if it is rarely perceived as such.
For Kallas, the promotion to Brussels would also have a clear advantage: as good as her reputation is internationally, it is tarnished at home. This has to do with an affair involving her husband Arvo Hallik: Last year it was revealed that Hallik had shares in a transport company that did business with Russia. Media in Estonia called for her resignation, and in the European elections her Reform Party lost eight points and fell to 18 percent.
Hardness towards Russia, empathy for Europe
However, that is not the reason why there was no agreement on the distribution of top EU posts at the informal summit of heads of state and government on Monday evening. According to Rafael Loss of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), it was not due to controversy over the names being bandied about. The reason is rather that the European People’s Party (which also includes the CDU and CSU) is testing whether it can exert more influence after its election victory. Kallas is in any case “no longer a particularly controversial candidate,” Loss told ntv.de. She always emphasizes support for Ukraine and European defense capabilities. But at the same time she tries to “radiate a certain empathy.” For example, by linking her family history with her political ideas in order to make them compatible with other parts of Europe – for example, for southern Europeans who are far away from Russia and do not share every fear of their eastern partners.
At the summit in Switzerland, Kallas also referred to her own family history: She spoke about her mother, who was deported to Siberia as a baby. Peace on Russian terms is synonymous with mass atrocities, oppression and colonization, Kallas said. Unlike US President Joe Biden or German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Estonian does not dance around when it comes to how this war should end: “Ukraine must win, Russia must be expelled, and the Russian aggressor and war criminals must be brought to justice,” she demanded in an article for the magazine “Foreign Affairs” in 2022.
This is not just talk, but is backed up by hard evidence: In relation to gross domestic product, no country supports Ukraine more than small Estonia – Germany is in this Statistics from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in 13th place, the USA in 23rd place. The same applies to NATO’s two percent target. While Germany just managed to get over the mark set in 2014 this year, Estonian defense spending is at 3.43 percent of GDP – second place behind Poland and ahead of the USA.
“That would be a strong signal from the EU”
CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter assesses the personnel decision accordingly. “It is desirable and would strengthen the EU enormously if Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas were to become the EU’s foreign policy chief in the future,” he told ntv.de. “This would be a strong signal from the EU that it is finally rethinking and, on the one hand, paying more attention to European security.”
At the same time, Kallas as EU foreign policy chief would be “a signal of political deterrence towards Russia, because Kallas has not only always warned against Russia’s imperial ambitions and its hybrid war against Europe, she is also at the forefront of those who want to support Ukraine much more strongly.” Kiesewetter points out that the proposal to use 0.25 percent of GDP for military support for Ukraine came from Kallas. “She would be an enormously strong counterpart to a future NATO Secretary General and could give the EU new weight.” Kallas made the proposal at a conference in Berlin in March. Scholz also called it “sympathetic” – after all, Germany’s aid is already above the 0.25 percent mark.
ECFR expert Loss rejects fears that Kallas, as foreign affairs representative, could focus too much on the issue of Russia. “For Kallas as foreign affairs representative, Russia will play a major role,” he says. “But it will do so anyway.”