Keller-Sutter to the UVEK, Berset to the FDF?

The abrupt departure of Simonetta Sommaruga brings new options for filling the departments into play. Now, with finance and energy, two important areas of influence will be free at the end of the year. With the exception of Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, all remaining members of the government are expected to change positions.

The allocation of departments is a matter for the Federal Council. The parties will deposit wishes with their representatives. But ultimately it is a decision that the panel makes alone, usually shortly after the by-election. During this meeting, the Federal Councilors express their views on the distribution of departments in the order of their terms of office. In principle, the following applies: if you are there longer, your wishes carry more weight. However, there is no guarantee that you will receive the preferred department. Then we discuss and decide together. According to those in the know, it often happens that there is a majority decision at the end.

There is no reliable information on the change intentions of the Federal Councilors, at most conjectures. The options described here are therefore only scenarios. Everything can turn out very differently.

Berset with good maps

With the resignations of Ueli Maurer and Simonetta Sommaruga, Alain Berset has become the longest-serving member of the Federal Council. He can register his wishes first. If he intends to remain in government for more than a year, a change of department would be the obvious choice. Just to take the wind out of the sails about questions about his resignation. The Freiburger has been in the Federal Council for almost eleven years. It would probably be his last chance to tackle something new again.

In Bundesbern it is rumored that the economist is flirting with a move to the Finance Department (EFD) – as with previous castling. However, the bourgeois parties would not be happy about it. There are also voices in business that warn against the Social Democrats moving to the Bernerhof. Because Berset has not yet attracted attention due to a pronounced financial policy sensorium. But this would be all the more important because the good years are over. In order to save less, Finance Minister Berset could try to soften the debt brake.

However, the question arises as to whether the bourgeois federal councilors would actually turn down Berset’s wish to switch to the FDF. In addition to political considerations, institutional considerations are also likely to play a role. The seniority principle is not sacrosanct, but it has a certain importance. It would hardly be beneficial for future cooperation in the body if the middle-class majority blocked the SP representative from accessing the FDF.

Keller-Sutter has several options

Karin Keller-Sutter could also take the opportunity to leave the Justice and Police Department after four years. She had to take it over contrecœur at the time. Because of her interests and her will to shape things, one could imagine the St. Gallen resident in the finance, foreign and internal departments. Major challenges await there: difficult years in terms of financial policy, the smoldering dispute with the EU, the restructuring of old-age provision and reforms in the healthcare system. But she would probably also dare to move to the extensive and currently very demanding Department for the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (UVEK).

Viola Amherd’s intentions are difficult to assess. She has been in charge of the defense department for four years and has landed an important success with the fighter jets. She could therefore change departments without blushing. At the moment it can be heard from her environment that she feels quite comfortable in her place. But the lawyer is also said to have the EJPD as her dream department. One could also imagine the Valais woman in the UVEK. As a national councillor, she was a member of the commission responsible for transport and communication for many years.

A possible scenario could look like this: Berset moves to the finance department, Amherd to the justice department. And Keller-Sutter takes over the uvek. The defense and interior departments remained for the two newcomers.

If Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis also wants to leave his house, the playing field opens up again. With a change, the Ticino would make room for a fresh force that could make a new start in negotiations with the EU. As a doctor and former social politician in the National Council, he would be predestined for the interior department.

The newcomers have to take what’s left

The interests and experiences of the newly elected Federal Councilors will also play a role. If the current favorite Albert Rösti is chosen from the SVP candidates, he would be a natural aspirant for the energy department due to his background. As a member of the Social and Health Commission (SGK), the Bernese would also have good qualifications for the interior department.

The SP papabili have experience in finance and health policy. Councilor of States Eva Herzog was responsible for finances for a long time as a member of the Basel City government. The Bernese national councilor Flavia Wasserfallen sits in the SGK and is president of the umbrella organization of Swiss patient centers.

Basically, the newcomers have to take what’s left. A novelty, however, would be a social democrat in the DDPS. However, it should be in the interests of the SP and the bourgeois parties to prevent such a scenario.