Kherson could become a turning point

The West is spreading optimistic news about the military situation in Ukraine. But the turning point has not yet been reached. The time factor is crucial.

Ukrainian artillery supports infantry counter-offensives at Cherson.

Metin Aktas/Anadolu/Getty

The Russian pontooners are currently under a lot of pressure: They have to keep the escape route for their own combat troops open with temporary river crossings northeast of the occupied city of Cherson – or, depending on the interpretation, open an additional connecting axis to the west. The two bridges over the Dnipro are damaged – or in acute danger, also depending on the interpretation. Videos on social networks also show a ferry service that the Russian pontooners have built across the river.

Russian advance area

Advance area west of the Dnipro

Crimea (annexed by Russia)

With the American Himars rocket launchers, the Ukrainian artillery also reached practically all the “passages obligés” in the Russian-occupied territories. The units west of the Dnipro are particularly exposed, as they are also exposed to counter-offensives by Kiev’s troops. Thirty kilometers separate the Ukrainian infantry from Cherson. Along the main axis, two mechanized brigades of the Russian army block direct access to the city.

Western experts suspect that the war in Ukraine is about to reach a turning point. Mick Ryan, a recently retired Australian Army general, philosophized on Twitter over the weekend about whether the defenders even took the initiative. This is the case when a commander forces the enemy to react, Ryan cites the US doctrine on combined arms combat.

War or Special Operation?

In fact, in recent days there have been increasing reports that the Russian army is moving troops from the heavyweight zone in the Donbass to the south-west towards Cherson. The attackers are said to have gone into defense of their land bridge between Russia and Crimea. But apart from a few pictures of shifting Buk surface-to-air defense systems, there was no concrete evidence.

A Ukrainian blogger provides much more details: According to the account of Konstantin Mashovets the Russian army is moving far more forces into the former sub-zone in the south-west than previously discussed – including, among other things, pontooning units. The blogger speculates that the Russian army could even shift its main focus to the south-west. This could mean that another push towards Odessa could be attempted.

The Dnipro crossing is a success-critical factor for the Russian occupiers.  It is currently secured by pontoon associations.

The Dnipro crossing is a success-critical factor for the Russian occupiers. It is currently secured by pontoon associations.

RIA Novosti / Imago

But, Mashovets concludes, the enemy is capable of carrying out just one operation with the available forces. The Russian army had to call off the storm around Kyiv in order to concentrate on the Donbass. An additional front at Kherson could again overwhelm Russian troops in Ukraine.

This is also in line with the portrayal of the situation disseminated by the Institute for the Study of War in the USA or the British Ministry of Defence. The Kremlin still wants an “all in” variant, i.e. preventing the mobilization of the reserve. The goals are still to be achieved with the available forces within the framework of “special operations” instead of with an openly declared war.

Spread hands instead of clenched fists

Western optimism is fueled by reports of the successes of the Ukrainian resistance in the occupied territories: the pro-Russian regional chief of Cherson is in a Moscow hospital with symptoms of poisoning. On Sunday, a collaborator from the region died as a result of an assassination attempt. However, the actual conditions in occupied Cherson are currently difficult to verify.

But the turning point in the Ukraine war is far from being reached. The main focus of the fighting is still in Donetsk province. There, Russian troops broke through the strong fortifications of the defenders last week, capturing the village of Piski.

The Ukrainian army is still working with strong forces to delay the main thrust of the attackers in Donbass. The main aim is to deny Russian troops access to the Bakhmut node. This is where the traffic axes for replenishment converge.

So it’s a race against time: the longer Kyiv can tie down the attackers in the heavyweight zone, the better the conditions in the Kherson area. The Russian army is forced to fight with a spread hand instead of a clenched fist.

In the meantime, the General Staff in Kyiv must be able to position enough armored forces to drive the Kremlin’s troops east across the Dnipro with full force. According to situation maps from Western observers, which should be treated with great caution, but only two mechanized brigades are ready to push into the Cherson area. That’s not enough to quickly regain possession of large areas of land.

The Kremlin will not simply give up Kherson. The city is the bridgehead for attacking Odessa at a later date. This would ultimately create a link to the Russian units in Transnistria, the occupied part of the Republic of Moldova. The occupiers are therefore currently trying to form a republic from the district around Cherson, which could later “join” the Russian Federation.

Decision made in the field

The two sides find themselves in a war of attrition, which is also being carried out via the international news portals. The reports of the use of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant as a Russian base compete with the polemics surrounding a report by Amnesty International. He criticizes Kiev’s troops for fighting outside built-up areas. The Ukrainian representative of the human rights organization quit her work with Amnesty in protest.

But the war will be decided outside, on the ground. The battle for Kherson, a densely populated and built-up area, could put the Russian army on the defensive. The prerequisite for this remains that the Kremlin does not send additional troops to Ukraine. The pontoon connections across the Dnipro herald the next phase of the war. Who gains the upper hand remains open.


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