The hopes of the Ukrainians and their supporter countries also rest on the Russians: Public pressure or even a fall of the war-obsessed President Putin could be the best way to put an end to the violence. There are definitely signs that this could happen.
Burning Russian armored cars catch the eye of readers of the online edition of “Novaya Gazeta” from the home page. These are images that only opposition media in Russia show. The “Gazeta” as the last existing stronghold in Russia or the channel Doschd, which broadcasts from exile on the Internet: They report on a war in which Russian soldiers are dying and in which Russia is shelling inhabited cities. Cities whose names are as familiar to people as Russian ones: Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Mariupol. Relations between Ukrainians and Russians are close, and not just because of their shared Soviet past.
This kind of pictures of the Russian attack on the Ukrainians, also referred to by Putin as “brothers,” cannot be seen on state television. According to the official interpretation, Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but is only carrying out a “special military operation” or a “special mission”. The fact that the Kremlin is only fighting against an illegitimate government and a few nationalists in the Ukrainian military, but not against the Ukrainian population, does not fit with the reports of the opposition media and the flood of images on social media.
But “Novaya Gazeta”, “Echo Moscow”, Doschd and other media only reach a fraction of the population, who mainly follow the closely controlled television channels. “Anyone who is on the Internet – some sites or social media providers are blocked or slowed down – will notice,” reports ntv correspondent Charlotte Maihoff from Moscow. But not all Russians are like that, especially since the Kremlin shoots a lot of propaganda online, and not only abroad.
pressure on protesters
Despite this restricted access, protests have been stirring in the country since the beginning of the war. More than 5,900 peaceful demonstrators have been arrested across Russia, according to the human rights organization Amnesty, citing the Russian human rights organization OVD-Info. “Russian authorities are plunging deeper and deeper into repression as anti-war public opinion grows,” said Marie Struthers, Amnesty’s Eastern Europe researcher.
Young, internet-savvy people in particular, who also follow other sources of information than the state ones, can be seen at the protests. The protests, which ultimately remained manageable, are also due to the intensified repression of the past few years: the intimidation is having an effect, and opposition structures, from which a nationwide peace movement could develop, were smashed. It is hard to imagine what the imprisoned Kremlin opponent Alexej Navalny could have achieved with his banned organization.
The international outrage over Putin’s war may not yet have reached the broader public, but that is likely to change this week: the financial sanctions are likely to have an impact on everyday life just as quickly as the blocking of large areas of airspace for Russian aircraft. The broad suspension of Russian athletes and clubs, the elimination of the Champions League final and the Formula 1 race are developments that will not go unnoticed by people who keep their distance from politics.
struggle for public opinion
On the Internet there are pictures of sticker wars, such as those waged by football fans in peacetime, except that this time it’s not about club logos: stickers with the slogan “No to war” are stuck to lanterns and in residential buildings and are used by supposed patriots and authorities removed again. The Instagram network delivered more than 300,000 hits under the Russian-language hashtag #neinzumkrieg. A call for peace written in Russian on the change.org platform has collected more than a million signatures.
The extent of these small skirmishes over public opinion cannot be estimated from Germany. However, there are definitely withdrawal movements, which many Russians should have already noted carefully. With the communist deputy Vyacheslav Markhayev, after Mikhail Matveev and Oleg Smolin, the third Duma deputy has criticized the attack on Ukraine. The Kremlin used the recognition of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk as a “pretext”; is part of “hidden plans to unleash a full-scale war with our closest neighbor,” quotes the “Novaya Gazeta” Markhayev.
The KPRF is seen as a puppet opposition, a party that is allowed to criticize here and there, but which fundamentally does not question the Putin system. That sounds a little different with Markhayev: “I voted for peace and not for war. For Russia to become a shield so that the Donbass is no longer bombed, but not for Kyiv to be bombed,” argued Matveyev.
Oligarchs also complain
“Echo Moscow” reports on a signature list in which more than 200 local deputies condemn the war: “We – the deputies elected by the people – unequivocally condemn the attack by the Russian army on Ukraine. This is an unprecedented atrocity for which it is there is no justification and cannot be,” says the appeal, which ntv.de was unable to verify.
There are also protests and criticism from some oligarchs and their children, including billionaire Oleg Tinkov, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska. “Now innocent people are dying every day in Ukraine, it’s unimaginable and unacceptable! (…) We are against this war!” the founder of Tinkoff Bank posted on Instagram along with a family picture. It is difficult to assess the influence that London-based elites like Tinkoff can have on Russian public opinion. At the very least, part of the Western strategy is to increase the pressure on Putin by causing the system’s previous beneficiaries to lose access to their businesses and wealth.
But while the losses of the oligarchs are primarily financial, those of the average Russian are far more tragic: if the Ukrainian numbers on the number of Russian soldiers killed are even remotely correct, the death notifications from the Russian army to the bereaved will be the first honest news that comes the Russian state brings its citizens out of the war in Ukraine – thousands of times.