LInnovation is a matter of timing. We always talk about it too early and we always wake up too late. Kodak was a pioneer in digital photography, like IBM in the Internet and Nokia in the smartphone. They looked for the Grail that everyone was talking about, believed they had it and had time to improve it, but failed. The same sequence is repeated today in the electric car. And Toyota does not at all want to be the Nokia of the 2030s.
The Holy Grail is known: it is called a solid battery. A technology radically different from current objects. It would reduce the size, cost and weight of batteries which currently represent more than a third of the price of an electric car. It alone carries the promise of a range of more than 1,000 kilometers, a recharge time of ten minutes, the elimination of the risk of fire and a lower price. Enough to shake up the world of transport in the next ten years. This is what a Grail is: a form of absolute object that can change the world.
Like a good crusader, Toyota firmly believes in it. So much so that, for six months, he has communicated at regular intervals about his quest, each time ensuring that he is getting closer to the goal. In June, he claimed to be able to market solid-state batteries in 2027. Then, in July, he confirmed his forecast. In September, he invited journalists and investors to one of his factories to demonstrate his commitment. In October, finally, it confirmed its objective of mass production for 2027-2028.
Industrial perseverance
Lagging behind current electric vehicles, the world’s leading manufacturer is trying to get back on track, at least in terms of communication. Evil tongues recall that in 2017, it planned production for 2025 and that, for ten years, mass production has regularly been announced within five years.
Because the difficulty of manufacturing a solid electrolyte is considerable. All the manufacturers and equipment suppliers are on this matter. The furthest ahead could still be a Chinese, the world leader CATL, which promises a “semi-solid” version for the end of 2023. Samsung, BMW, Nissan, and even the vacuum cleaner manufacturer Dyson, are building pilot lines.
As in the case of the transition from cathode ray screens to flat screens, the difference will be made by industrial perseverance to reduce costs and increase quality quickly enough. The Koreans had won the screen battle. Who will find this new Grail first? For the moment, he looks more like the beautiful Arlesian woman everyone talks about, but whom we never see. The race is on.