Land in Sight: Local Bitcoin Bottom Reached Soon?

Sideways trends in Bitcoin land are not very exciting. But sometimes that’s exactly what it takes. Is Bitcoin getting ready for the next upswing?

The eagerly awaited year-end rally is still a long time coming. Unlike course influencers like PlanB prophesies, Bitcoin is not on its way into the six-digit range, but is somewhere in no man’s land between USD 50,000 and USD 60,000. Nobody can really say where the journey is going. But at least: on-chain data indicate a slightly bullish trend.

On the one hand, there is the overview of Twitter users @BinkiePondarosa to call. The newcomer prepares a weekly summary of the status quo on the Bitcoin blockchain – and currently comes up with a mixed to bullish picture.

So send indicators like the 90-Days-Coin-Days-Destroyed-Indiactor a bottom signal, meaning that the local bottom has already been reached at this point. Coin Days Destroyed is an indicator that measures the accumulated days, the days spent UTXOs were no longer moved, i.e. held. If the indicator exceeds a threshold of 500,000, the market slowly gets hot. However, the level is currently at the lower end of the range at 160,000.


It is improving. Source: Glassnode.

Also at the Stock-to-flow-Front is about to bounce. Because with a multiple of -0.55, BTC is currently trading well below plan. In other words: Either Bitcoin will soon catapult itself back into bullish territory or the model will become invalid.

SOPR: Bounce in sight?

Also in terms of things SOPR an optimistic picture emerges. Because this is currently still in positive territory at 1.001 and could soon have reached its local bottom. SOPR stands for Spend Output to Profit Ratio and, to put it simply, denotes the profit ratio in the market. A value above 1 indicates that the average of the market participants is still profitable.

Reached bottom? SOPR says: yes. Source: Glassnode.

If the value is too high, around 1.04, it becomes dangerous and the market overheats. In other words: As things stand, the market is currently in a recovery situation in which market participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. But that could change soon.



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