“Landslide Victory or Annihilation”
Trump or Biden – who will triumph in the midterms?
By Roland Peters, Atlanta
11/08/2022 10:08 am
In today’s election, President Biden and the Democrats must face the judgment of the American people. Are you happy with your government in Washington? Or do they strengthen Trump? A Republican alliance bodes bleak for the 2024 presidential election.
Iowa, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, four campaign appearances in five days. This is how ex-President Donald Trump decided to support the Republicans. And for yourself. “Very, very, very soon you will be very happy,” Trump flirtted with his renewed application for a presidential candidacy in western Pennsylvania. In Ohio, he added he would make “a very big announcement” on November 15. Even if the voters are not directly deciding on the next head of state of the USA this Tuesday: Indirectly, that is exactly what is at stake.
The importance of the so-called midterm elections for the power structure of the government and within the parties is immense. The entire House of Representatives will be re-elected, a third of the senators, plus many governors – the heads of state government – and other offices. When the first results are announced in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, everyone will take a close look at what else they could reveal. By and large, it will be clear on Wednesday morning German time where the parties are headed.
Different priorities
Part of the analysis will deal with how much support US President Joe Biden still has in the population and how much influence he still has in Washington DC in the next two years. According to the polls, it would be a small miracle if the Democrats retained their slim majority in the House of Representatives. If they defend their wafer-thin majority in the Senate, it would be a great success. But according to the statisticians of FiveThirtyEight, no one knows exactly: “The Republicans are only one error tolerance away from a landslide victory – or annihilation”, analyzed the US media the situation.
For voters are generally the most important topics the economic situation, the “future of democracy”, education and health care for their decision. However, the priorities are drastically different in relation to political orientation: for Republicans, the most important issues are the economy, immigration and the fight against violent crime, for Democrats it is the “future of democracy”, health care and the abortion rights.
If the Democrats have to go into opposition in both chambers, the Republican howls of triumph will be deafening. Rightly so, since the White House would lose enormous influence. Congress has sovereignty over budget issues, giving it leverage to force Democrats to make concessions that are difficult for them to convey to their constituents. All this also influences the election chances in two years.
Same popularity, different consequences
Biden is currently just as little popular with the population as Trump was shortly before his midterms: only 38 percent are satisfied with his presidency. In previous midterm elections, the president usually lost his majority in at least one of the chambers of congress. But the high number of early voters suggests that, despite Biden’s unpopularity, the Democrats will again go to the polls in droves to prevent Republican candidates.
In the analysis, the Republicans will take a very close look at which Republican candidates won where – and who supported them. There are many wings within the conservative party, with Trump’s “MAGA Republicans” being the most influential. The majority of election deniersi.e. Republicans who, like Trump, deny the 2020 election result have a good chance of getting into office.
The result will influence who Republicans will choose as their presidential nominee in 2024. The overarching question will be: Who has the best chance of conquering the White House? Trump may not have a political office, but he is likely to help determine the agenda for the next two years, at least indirectly. It’s about the permeability of the US southern border, social programs and last but not least the Ukraine aid, which quite a few Republicans question.
Alliance of Deniers
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania will most likely decide who will hold the Senate majority. But not only at the Congress in Washington, also at state level important offices are being wrestled with.
Among other things, it is about some governors and theirs Secretaries of State – Secretaries of State, who in many states have a say in how elections are conducted and certified. This makes them extremely important for the 2024 presidential election. Republicans in particular have long used tactics to make voting difficult for sections of the population that traditionally lean towards the Democrats.
The non-election Republican candidates for secretary of state have formed an “America First Secretary of State Coalition” merged. Nobody knows how they will behave if a possible candidate is narrowly defeated by Trump in two years.