Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Laschet or Söder?
Union has to decide now
Who will be the Union’s candidate for chancellor? The chairmen of the CDU and CSU want to clarify this between Easter and Pentecost. The gap left by Angela Merkel is noticeable in the surveys. The two contenders Söder and Laschet both dare to do the job – and do not give each other anything.
The polls: crashed. The Chancellery: wobbles. And then the K question: unsolved. Almost six months before the general election, there is growing nervousness in the Union. Between Easter and Whitsun it should finally be decided who will be the candidate for the CDU and CSU in the federal elections on September 26th. That is what the two potential candidates of the Union, Armin Laschet and Markus Söder, have promised. But recently little was felt of the peaceful Easter rest and brotherly unity: CSU boss Söder continues to tease Laschet, the chairman of the big sister party.
Does the K question split the Union in the year of the Bundestag election? In the dispute over migration policy after 2015, the CDU and CSU almost fell apart. At least in terms of content, the Union sisters finally seemed reconciled. But now one asks the CDU: Will the Union find the unity that is so important for its supporters in the election campaign? Many consider this, along with better corona management, to be one of the most important conditions for emerging from the bottom of the survey. Sometimes the Union is only a few points ahead of the Greens.
The Easter remarks by the Bavarian Prime Minister are angry with some in the CDU leadership. “The decision about the candidacy for chancellor should also be coordinated closely with Angela Merkel,” says Söder of “Bild am Sonntag”. A candidate without the support of the Chancellor can hardly be successful. In fact, concise notes that Laschet would also sign. If it weren’t for Söder’s undertone, which you can hear in the big sister party: The Bavarian sees itself very closely on Merkel’s hard corona line – and Laschet probably less so.
“Surveys play a role, of course”
Then Söder, who has long been clearly ahead of Laschet in terms of popularity and competence, also replies to the question of whether such surveys can be ignored: “Surveys play a role, of course. They are an important benchmark for the acceptance of people and Programs in the population. ” Laschet and other CDU grandees have been emphasizing for weeks that the decision on the candidacy for chancellor will be made regardless of the current survey situation. The comments from Munich were a kick in front of Laschet’s shin, is a cautious comment.
The main question now is: How will Laschet proceed? And when? Neither of them have publicly announced their candidacy for the Chancellery. You really have to prevent open competition from tearing the Union apart. That is why they want to clarify the question among themselves, present the result to the top committees of their parties – and then present themselves as a united fighting duo. Will that work? Laschet, there is hardly any doubt in his party, absolutely wants to become a candidate and chancellor. That a CDU boss has to pick up the directives from a CSU chancellor every week, that a CSU chancellor meets regularly with his party committees in Munich and the bigger sister CDU with its chairman in Berlin practically sits at the cat table – for many in the CDU -That’s a nightmare.
Internally, it is rumored, Laschet is self-confident. He is betting that the CDU regional associations and their chairmen will largely support him – also in the East, which was formerly the heartland of his chairman rival Friedrich Merz. It is true that the Union faction in the Bundestag also calls for Söder from individual CDU members. And the name of parliamentary group leader Ralph Brinkhaus (CDU) is also mentioned by some as a compromise solution. The background for such advances: The parliamentary group is afraid of losing the mandate because of the poor poll results.
What does Söder want?
In general, however, it is still true that the head of the larger Union party has virtually the first right of access to the candidacy for chancellor. Söder also knows: he can only become a candidate if Laschet and the CDU ask him to do so. The CDU chairman would probably only do that if, for example, he was urged to do so from the circle of the party presidium. But that’s where the powerful state chairmen and minister-presidents of the CDU sit – especially among the latter, Söder has made no friends with his regular solo efforts in the prime ministerial group.
And what does Söder want anyway? Does he, who has asserted for many months (but recently more seldom) that his place is in Bavaria, end up aiming for the candidacy for chancellor? Söder is actually fighting for a joint, tougher anti-corona course by the federal and state governments. In the meantime, at the beginning of March, he himself, like Merkel, had given in to the insistence of many and, despite warnings, had given signals to the opening after a long lockdown. In Bavaria, too, the corona numbers have shot up again. Meanwhile, the Chancellor, he and other Prime Ministers are fighting for a stricter course, with automatic emergency brakes and all the trimmings.
So Söder’s remarks towards Laschet could also be interpreted in this way – as an attempt to get everyone on the Merkel line. After all, Merkel votes in the federal election are only possible with Merkel’s policy, he said a few weeks ago. Söder also wants to get involved in the programmatic orientation of the Union – which is why the CSU leadership complains that Laschet did not discuss his latest program initiative at all, or at least too late.
Of course, the CSU trusts Söder to take over the chancellery, and he certainly does too. But a candidate for chancellor would involve incalculable risks – for his strong position as CSU head and prime minister. And also for the CSU supremacy in Bavaria. Because the strength of the CSU feeds in large part from the fact that it often appears as a Bavarian opposition party in Berlin – even when it governs. It would be over if a CSU Chancellor had to represent Berlin coalition compromises in Bavaria as well.
The bottom line is that Söder’s demeanor and his taunts against Laschet can probably be interpreted in such a way that he wants to push up his price and that of the CSU. It should not look like an automatic mechanism that the K-question runs towards Laschet, even if it is possibly so. That’s why Söder wants to stay in the race as long as possible. Because it is already about weight and influence in the – they also hope in the CSU – the next federal government with a Union Chancellor. Even if he might be called Armin Laschet in the end.
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