Last real CL group stage
Despite the title, FC Bayern is threatened with a hammer group
By Kevin Schulte
May 31, 2023 at 8:37 p.m
Borussia Dortmund not only missed the first German championship since 2012, but also made it into the first draw in the draw for the historic 2023/24 Champions League season. FC Bayern could still be hit harder in the group phase.
When FC Bayern’s ball was not in the first pot for the last time in the Champions League group stage draw, Werder Bremen was still playing in the Champions League, RB Leipzig was not yet founded and Jamal Musiala was five years young. We are writing the 2008/2009 season.
15 years later, Jamal Musiala with his title goal in the dramatic final stretch of the Bundesliga prevented both the end of the championship series and a spectacle in the draw that had not been seen for years: Borussia Dortmund did not only have one hand before the last home game against Mainz 05 of the bowl, but the ball is already at least pre-warmed for the course into the best-occupied draw in the Champions League. But as you know, everything turned out differently.
In the draw for the group stage of football’s premier class, Germany will once again be represented by FC Bayern in the first draw. Only pot two remains for Dortmund.
Since the 2014/15 season, the reigning Champions League winners and Europa League winners from the previous season have received a place in pot one under all circumstances. In addition, there are the champions of the six strongest associations (England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Portugal), which are Manchester City, FC Barcelona, SSC Naples, FC Bayern, Paris St. Germain and Benfica from Lisbon.
Real Madrid only in Pot 2
If Manchester City also wins the CL final after the title in England on June 10, Feyenoord Rotterdam would move up into the first pot as Dutch champions. The signs for today’s Europa League final between AS Roma and FC Sevilla (9 p.m. / RTL) are clear: the winner ends up in pot 1, the loser is not there at all.
- Raffle 1 (If Man City wins the CL final): Manchester CityAS Roma/FC Sevilla, FC Barcelona, SSC Napoli, FC Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica LisbonFeyenoord Rotterdam
From pot two, the 24 remaining teams will be sorted strictly according to their placement in the Uefa five-year ranking. In addition to Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig also ends up in this pot. Real Madrid, who didn’t win either the Spanish championship or the Champions League this year, also have to make friends with pot two. Also safe are Manchester United, Atlético Madrid, FC Porto and the “premier class” returnees from Arsenal FC from London. Inter Milan could still escape pot two by winning the Champions League, then Shakhtar Donetsk would move up.
- Raffle 2 (If Inter wins the CL final): Real MadridManchester United Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Atlético Madrid, RB Leipzig, FC Porto, Arsenal
The third pot is the only one without a German representative. All eight teams are possible opponents for Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig and Union. However, as of now, only four teams have secured their place in this lottery pot. Because a total of six CL starting places will be determined over several qualifying rounds and will only be determined in August, there can still be a lot of movement.
- Raffle 3 (If teams with the highest UEFA coefficients qualify): Shakhtar Donetsk, FC SalzburgDinamo Zagreb*, AC MilanGlasgow Rangers*, Sporting Braga*, Lazio Rome, Red Star Belgrade
In the pot of the nominally weakest participants, it will then be interesting again from a German point of view. After qualifying for the Conference League (season 2021/22) and the Europa League (22/23), 1. FC Union Berlin has now achieved the European qualifying triple. In the first premier class participation, there is only one place left in pot four despite the most recent round of 16 in the Euro-League. So much is already certain: trips to the surprise French team from Lens or to the Spanish table fourth Real Sociedad from San Sebastian are just as impossible as games against the Turkish champions Galatasaray Istabul or the Scottish record champions Celtic Glasgow.
- Raffle 4 (If teams with the highest Uefa coefficients qualify): FC Copenhagen*, Young Boys Bern*, Real Sociedad San Sebastian, Galatasaray Istanbul*, Celtic Glasgow Newcastle United Union Berlin RC Lens
Teams with a star* have yet to qualify.
greased Teams are guaranteed to end up in the respective lottery pot.
Bayern undefeated for six years
For FC Bayern, the group phase is traditionally more of an exhibition than a sporting hurdle. Bayern have been undefeated in 34 group games and have even won 31 games. And that despite some well-known opponents such as Barcelona, Atlético or Inter. The last defeat was six years ago. In September 2017, Bayern lost 3-0 at Paris St. Germain, after which coach Carlo Ancelotti was fired.
The Tuchel team cannot meet PSG in the preliminary round this time, but a hammer group is possible despite the pot one. In theory, Bayern could end up in a group with Champions League semi-finalists Real Madrid and AC Milan, as well as nouveau riche Newcastle United. The other extreme would be a preliminary round against FC Porto, Red Star Belgrade and Celtic Glasgow.
Union Berlin vs Real Madrid?
Newcastle and Milan are also potential opponents of Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. However, games against Real Madrid are excluded for the runner-up and the German third in the table. Instead, Manchester City and PSG are lurking in the first pot, but overall pot two makes a stronger impression across the board, so that the danger of death groups for Dortmund and Leipzig is curiously lower than for Bayern.
On the other hand, the risk for Champions League newcomer Union Berlin is exorbitantly high. Although the Köpenickers would probably have no objection to the premier class holidays with the best teams in Europe. Manchester City, Real Madrid and AC Milan visiting the stadium at the Alte Försterei? Quite possible, provided that Union is allowed to play in its own stadium and does not have to move to the Olympic Stadium. On the other hand, the chances of progressing would be much better in a group with Feyenoord Rotterdam, FC Porto and Red Star Belgrade.
Why is next season going to be historic?
For the last time ever, the Champions League preliminary round will be played in the tried and tested format with 32 teams in 8 groups of four. From the 2024/25 season, 36 teams will qualify for the so-called concert of the greats. The game is then played in the so-called “Swiss system”, a kind of league format. All 36 teams are listed in a table, with each team playing eight games against eight different teams (four home, four away). This increases the total number of Champions League games from 125 to 225 per season. In the future, UEFA and the top clubs will generate even more money with the Cashcow Champions League.