Lavrov and Medvedev are more likely to believe
ISW warns about Putin’s ceasefire offer
December 29, 2023, 1:11 p.m
According to the New York Times, Vladimir Putin is signaling to the West through intermediaries that he is ready for a ceasefire. The Institute for War Studies warns urgently against accepting this: This offer does not fit the rhetoric of the Kremlin leadership.
Recently received one Report from the New York Times an alleged secret ceasefire offer from Russian President Vladimir Putin attracted considerable attention. According to the newspaper, the Kremlin chief is said to have signaled “through intermediaries at least since September” that he was open to a ceasefire that would freeze fighting along the current front. This was said by two former high-ranking Russian officials close to the Kremlin, as well as American and international officials who received the message from Putin’s envoy.
The US Institute for War Studies (ISW) doesn’t believe in the offers from the Kremlin, if they actually existed: the researchers at the military think tank warn in an analysis from ignoring the Kremlin’s “mostly near-constant public signaling of Russia’s maximalist goals in Ukraine.” Just a few days ago, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Marija Zakharova, explaineda resolution of the conflict is only possible by achieving the “goals of the special military operation”.
Big doubts about Putin’s sincerity
There are “several reasons to believe that Putin’s ceasefire offer may not be sincere,” writes the ISW. The Kremlin leader may intend to “use the time he would have to spend on longer negotiations to his political and military advantage.”
War researchers are wary of the assumption that Putin’s peace offers through intermediaries “reflect his thoughts and wishes more accurately than the rhetoric that he and other Kremlin officials repeatedly express publicly.” This rhetoric repeatedly indicated that Russia was not interested in negotiating in good faith with Ukraine or the West.
Medvedev wants to continue
In this context, among other things, current interview the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev. When asked about the possibility of negotiations next year, he told the Russian state media RIA Novosti that the “special military operation”, as the invasion of Russia is called, would continue. Russia’s goal is the “disarmament of Ukrainian troops”, which, according to the ISW, means the demilitarization of the country.
Medvedev also renewed allegations of alleged “neo-Nazism by the current Ukrainian state” and spoke of wanting to achieve regime change in Kiev.
The ex-president also claimed that Odessa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Kiev were “Russian cities”. The ISW sees the statements as an indication that Russia could intend to occupy areas beyond the current front line – and not to freeze them, as Putin’s intermediaries allegedly offered. Citing intelligence sources, the “Bild” newspaper also reported this a few weeks ago reportedthat Putin wants to conquer all areas to the left of the Dnipro River by 2026, i.e. large parts of the Zaporizhia, Dnipro and Kharkiv regions.
Lavrov mourns the Soviet Union
According to war researchers, statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who also recently gave an interview to RIA Novosti, do not fit with a ceasefire offer. Lavrov claimed that it was the West that was looking for a way to end the war in Ukraine while simultaneously declaring a Ukrainian victory. According to ISW, this is “possibly a reaction to the Western reports about Russia’s willingness to negotiate” that emerged with the appearance of the article in the New York Times.
Lavrov also regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union and said Ukrainians and Russians were “one people.” Kiev’s demands to return to its 1991 borders were “demands for genocide,” he claimed.
ISW: “Cleanup campaigns” in occupied territories
Far from the rhetoric of leading Russian politicians, the ISW also cites the conditions in the occupied territories as an argument against freezing the conflict, which could amount to ceding territory. “Russian armed forces and administrations are conducting large-scale and targeted ethnic cleansing campaigns by forcibly and illegally deporting Ukrainians to Russia and replacing them with Russians and migrants from Russia,” the analysis said.
The administration has illegally deported tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia for adoption by Russian families and is “systematically working to eliminate Ukrainian language, culture, history and ethnicity in areas occupied by Russian forces.” These are allegations that have also been made by the “National Resistance Center”, which was founded by the special forces of the Ukrainian army, documented again and again.
The government in Kiev, which can only maintain the ongoing defensive war against Russia thanks to Western arms and financial aid, has so far shown no willingness to cede territory. Ukraine continues to demand that Moscow withdraw all troops from its territory.